As Bitcoin continues to set new highs, intuitively speaking, the probability of Bitcoin rising is small, but once it rises, it can skyrocket;
the probability of it falling is relatively high, but at most, it would just be a price halving.
Imagine you are sitting on a high-speed train heading towards the future, and suddenly the train stops. There is an 80% chance it will reverse, and after an hour, it will start again, while there is a 20% chance it will suddenly take off. If you miss it, you will never be able to board again.
So, would you get off to play for an hour, betting that the train won’t suddenly start?
It is advised not to take that gamble; you won’t accomplish much in that hour, and if that small probability event happens, the consequences will be very severe.
In terms of Bitcoin, this small probability event is what we often refer to as a black swan event. Once a significant crisis erupts in an economy, the Bitcoin train will start suddenly, and if you happen to have gotten off, you will only be left watching from the sidelines afterward.
