As Bitcoin continues to set new highs, intuitively, the probability of Bitcoin rising is relatively small, but once it rises, it can soar;

the probability of it falling is relatively high, but at most, the price will just be halved.

Imagine you are on a high-speed train heading to the future, and suddenly the train stops. There is an 80% chance it will reverse and start again in an hour, while there is a 20% chance it will suddenly take off. If you miss it, you won't be able to board again.

So, would you get off to play for an hour, betting that the train won't suddenly depart?

It is advised not to take that bet; you won't be able to do much in that hour, and if that low-probability event happens, the consequences could be very serious.

In terms of Bitcoin, this low-probability event is what we often refer to as a black swan event. Once a major crisis erupts in an economy, and the Bitcoin train suddenly takes off while you happen to have gotten off, you will only be left watching from the sidelines.