The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US is at its lowest since May. It fell by 6,000 compared to the previous week - 213,000.
And although the total number of people receiving benefits is higher than expected, local data is more important here. Because it reflects the dynamics of further strengthening of the labor market here and now. Despite the past tightening of the monetary policy.
This gives the US Federal Reserve the opportunity to reduce the interest rate more slowly, if necessary. If consumer and production inflation continue to resist the efforts of the central bank. And on the plus side - it pushes the topic of recession risks even further.
According to #CMEGroup, the market has the following expectations for the Fed meeting on December 18:
- 44.5% - there will be a pause (37.6% on November 14).
- 55.5% - there will be a decrease of 0.25 percentage points (62.4% on November 14).
- 0 - there will be a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. Expectations of a pause are already growing steadily. I wouldn't say that this is a big negative for the BTC bull run (and it is already underway, that's a fact). But if by December 18 the consensus forecast is not for a pause, and the markets eventually get one, this could become negative for them for some time. Which, in fact, would be invested in us a scenario of expecting a#BTCrange from next Monday and in the coming weeks.