Article reprinted from: NingNing
The bitcoin bloodsucking market is in a self-reinforcing phase, previously only draining altcoins, but has recently started to drain on-chain MeMe coins.
This morning, I observed that the market sentiment on Twitter has turned very negative, with strong voices of crypto nihilism and BTC Maxi fundamentalism.
Many respected traders and OGs have even lamented that 'the altcoin season is over.'
From the historical data presented in the Dune Alts Buy Signal chart, there are four patterns between BTC and altcoins:
Pattern 1: BTC up, altcoins up. In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins are in an upward trend, BTC.D (BTC market cap share) may fluctuate or decline. This is a prosperous period in a bull market.
This is the time to go long. If altcoins are performing stronger than BTC, you can increase your position. Conversely, caution is needed.
Pattern 2: BTC down, altcoins down. In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend.
This is the time to reduce risk, buy more stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. The only time worth considering going short. For long-term trend traders, it is advisable to wait for a trend reversal. For long-term holders, DCA or buy the dip is recommended.
Pattern 3: BTC down, altcoins up. This pattern rarely occurs. When BTC is fluctuating and has not shown aggressive declines, this could be a short-term altcoin season. Consider increasing risk exposure.
Pattern 4: BTC up, altcoins down. BTC performs better than the market in an upward trend, and BTC.D continues to reach new highs. This pattern usually occurs before a halving or at the beginning of a bull market.
At this stage, it is recommended to take the opportunity to accumulate altcoins in anticipation of an explosion.
The above is a historical pattern summarized by @cryptokoryo.
It seems we are in a state of patterns, but we must admit that the duration and degree of decoupling between BTC and altcoins this time far exceed historical cases.
Furthermore, after the approval of the BTC spot ETF, the market worries about changing the funding allocation model for crypto assets, and MSTR became the hottest stock trade yesterday, seemingly confirming that this concern is becoming a reality, making the skepticism towards altcoin season more persuasive.
But as a perpetual crypto optimist, I can still see 'disruptive innovation' rapidly iterating in areas like chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, and the bitcoin ecosystem, and feel the 'exponential growth' push in the MeMe coin and consumer chain fields. Discussing the 'end of history' for altcoins seems to me an irrational emotional outburst. If such a market makes you feel anxious and lost, take some time to observe the altcoin projects that are actively working.
Chain Abstract Infra @ParticleNtwrk
Chain Abstract Fat Application @infinex_app
A new paradigm infra from Cosmos: @initia
Bitcoin ecological idealists: @NervosNetwork
Bitcoin L2 endorsed by the world's largest bitcoin mining company: @build_on_bob
A platform for asset issuance technology equality in collaboration with Ai16z: @vvaifudotfun
Solana L2 that successfully gained 1M followers on Tiktok: @SonicSVM
Tranquility leads to far-reaching results. A calm mind is the remedy for our turbulence in trading.
