BTC's Dance of Fluctuations: The Story Behind Market Waves
Recently, BTC's price movement can be described as a spectacular high-altitude acrobatics performance. It surged to an astonishing height of $93,265 and dropped to a low of $80,216. The fluctuation reached 16.27%, resembling a thrilling 'mountain climbing' drama. Meanwhile, the accumulation of chips around $86,000 has become a small step for the price to dance in this area, which could either support or trip it up.
Distribution Analysis: The Cooperation of Chips
After meticulous analysis, we found:
1. In the range of 69,000-73,000, there are 466,700 chips accumulated, resembling a well-defended elite force, determined not to let the price easily break down.
2. In the range of 74,000-78,000, there are only 88,700 chips, somewhat like a temporarily gathered reserve force, with slightly weaker momentum.
After weighing the options, I arrived at the following two 'gambling probabilities':
The possibility of not breaking 71,000-74,000 is as high as 70%.
The possibility of breaking 95,000-100,000 is slightly lower, but still at 60%.
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Macroeconomic News: A Dual Symphony of Policy and Economy
In terms of economic news, the Federal Reserve and the giants are playing quite lively.
1. BlackRock seems like a 'money-rich tech enthusiast', sweeping stocks of tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia in the third quarter, with its holding value soaring to $4.76 trillion.
2. Fed Chair Powell has hinted that there is no urgent matter for the Fed to cut rates, but it does not necessarily mean there will be strong actions next, clearly leaving the market to ponder on its own.
3. But don't rush, the Federal Reserve's 'division of opinions' drama is never absent. Some predict a rate cut in December, while others say to wait, anyway, the current market pricing for a rate cut probability is only about 60%.
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Crypto Ecosystem: A Carnival Party
The cryptocurrency market is still performing a classic play of 'magical realism':
1. The political winds in the United States are blowing into the cryptocurrency field. The legendary 'Strategic BTC Reserve Plan', although it seems crazy, has inevitably excited the market.
2. Japanese company Metaplanet is waving the banner of 1.75 billion yen in bonds, rushing into the BTC market, seemingly wanting to take the center stage at this party.
3. MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor is once again conducting a poll on social media, asking everyone 'Can Bitcoin break $100,000 by the end of the year?' The result shows that 85.2% of people firmly believe it can break, making it seem like the whole world has become a die-hard fan of BTC.
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Market Structure: The Implicit Meaning Behind the Story
Let's dive deeper into the analysis, after all, market structure is the real behind-the-scenes driver.
ETF Reserve Changes: Although the enthusiasm of external funds seems to have cooled, the flame has not been completely extinguished.
Net Fund Transfers at Exchanges: Large players still hold heavy artillery and continue to purchase aggressively, resembling an old general commanding from the front.
Long-term Holder Structure: The proportion of long-term players is gradually declining, while short-term players are ambitiously taking over the baton. However, historical experience tells us that when the proportion of long-term holders drops sharply to a certain extent, the market may collapse.
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Technical Analysis:
The BTC/USDT daily chart shows the current price at 92,835.46, approaching the recent high of 93,905.51, overall presenting a strong upward trend, but the upward momentum has weakened. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is close to the upper band at 99,876.94, and if it doesn't break through, it may retrace to around 83,412.03 (mid-band support). The MACD histogram is shortening, bullish momentum is weakening, and there are signs of shrinking trading volume, indicating increasing market divergence.
In the short term, if the price retraces to 85,000-86,000 and finds support, there may be a chance to challenge the psychological barrier of 100,000; if it breaks this support area, it may further test the strong support near 66,947.13.
In terms of operations, short-term attention should be on rebound opportunities after pullbacks, while mid to long-term should wait for more momentum confirmation signals. Be cautious of the risks of chasing prices at high levels and suggest strictly setting stop losses to avoid losses from market adjustments.
In short, the recent crypto market resembles a gripping suspense movie, with rising tension and plot twists. It's time to keep an eye on the mysterious key point of 86,000 and listen to how the market answers the question of the script's ending. The price fluctuations in the short term may still quicken the heartbeat, but in the long run, BTC's story remains worth looking forward to.
On the path of investment, please bring your wisdom, patience, and a bit of humor, so that no matter how the market trends, you can at least enjoy the journey!
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