At the beginning of this week, the black series saw a slight rebound, with the iron ore 2501 contract increasing by 3.4% on Monday, and as of 10:15 AM on November 19, the price was 757 yuan/ton; the rebar 2501 contract increased by 1.45% on Monday, with a price of 3263 yuan/ton at the same time; the coking coal 2501 contract increased by 1.23% on Monday, with a price of 1272.5 yuan/ton at the same time.

Iron Ore Monitoring Tool - Market Conditions

Rebar Monitoring Tool - Market Conditions

Coking Coal Monitoring Tool - Market Conditions

Iron Ore

According to Mysteel's survey, from November 11 to November 17, 2024, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 25.588 million tons, a decrease of 853,000 tons compared to the previous period. The total global iron ore shipment this period was 30.109 million tons, a decrease of 98,000 tons compared to the previous period.

According to Mysteel statistics, on November 19, China's total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 158.72 million tons, an increase of 901,000 tons compared to last Monday.

According to Mysteel statistics, on November 15, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.08%, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the previous period; the profit margin of steel mills was 57.58%, a decrease of 2.16%; the average daily pig iron production was 2.3594 million tons, an increase of 18,800 tons compared to the previous period.

Data shows that the iron ore supply side may have improved, but port inventories remain high and are accumulating, while the improvement in downstream steel mills is gradually slowing down. This indicates that in the long term, the iron ore supply-demand situation may still be relatively loose.

According to analysis from My Steel Network, following a series of macro events, iron ore prices have undergone a significant correction. The main reason for the decline remains the strong supply and weak demand fundamentals that are difficult to reverse, and with the impact of mining production cycles next year, the supply side of iron ore is expected to be more relaxed. However, according to our survey, the market still has expectations for winter storage in the short term, and traders' willingness to store for winter has increased due to lower rebar prices. Expectations for raw material restocking from steel mills also provide some support for iron ore prices, leading to a short-term rebound in prices. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is a risk of further exacerbating the iron ore supply-demand contradiction, which may lead to a downward shift in the price center.

We can use the Iron Ore Monitoring Tool - Major Events Function (experience now) to continuously track important supply-demand data and changes in corporate winter storage.

Iron Ore Monitoring Tool - Major Events

Rebar

According to Mysteel, Shanxi Jianlong completely halted production on November 18 for construction steel rolling lines, with one rebar production line scheduled to stop for 45 days, another rebar production line for 10 days, and a wire rod production line planned to halt until early 2025, currently affecting production by 10,000 tons/day. This may create a certain expectation of reduced demand for rebar.

According to Mysteel's survey, the market continues to focus on winter storage conditions. Currently, 93.62% of steel mills have not signed agreements with traders for next year, while only 6.38% have done so; regarding traders' psychological price levels, the proportion of those below 3100 yuan/ton remains the largest, at approximately 42.67%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points compared to the first survey. The survey indicates that the current price of rebar has not yet reached the price range that traders are willing to winter store.

Zhonghui Futures states that at the industrial level, in most regions, the profit from hot rolled coils has exceeded that of rebar, and in the future, more pig iron may flow to hot rolled coils; the electric furnace's flat electricity cost is at breakeven or loss, and rebar production may decline in the future due to the consumption off-season and profit changes. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction for finished steel is not significant, but the raw material side faces some supply pressures. Policy measures continue to intermittently bring disruptions, providing temporary support for the black series, with the market potentially re-entering a state of volatility.

Through the Rebar Monitoring Tool - Summary of Indicator Resonance Points (click the link to experience), we find that the rebar 01 contract is facing triple pressure in the range of 3284-3287 yuan/ton, including the previous monthly low, the 5-period moving average on the daily chart, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the hourly chart. Subsequent attention can be focused on testing the price within this range.

Rebar Monitoring Tool - Summary of Indicator Resonance Points

Coking Coal

According to an analysis by Zhonghang Futures on November 18, last Friday, coking coal prices showed weak fluctuations, and the imported Mongolian coal market price hit a new low, with offline transactions being bleak and online bidding showing obvious failures, with transactions mainly based on tenders. The steel market has entered a seasonal off-peak period, maintaining a situation of weak supply and demand overall, but the fundamental contradictions have not yet formed, still showing a supply-demand gap, maintaining a general destocking pattern. The overseas Trump team is being formed, and the corresponding official nominations will create expectations for future U.S. policies, leading to short-term emotional disturbances; the strong dollar logic in overseas trading continues, putting pressure on the overall commodity atmosphere. Domestically, the current phase is in a policy vacuum, with the market focusing on short-term trading realities. Downstream expectations are weak, with low willingness to restock, and coking coal demand is suppressed, with its own fundamentals weakening, following steel price fluctuations. Steel prices are significantly affected by expectations of fiscal policies, waiting for the short-term emotional release to conclude, while expectations for the December Politburo meeting remain. As the year-end approaches, restocking demand is gradually being released, and bottom support in the market is becoming apparent, focusing on support near previous lows.

We can use the Coking Coal Monitoring Tool - Institutional Views (click the link to experience) to view different institutions' opinions and comments on coking coal.

Coking Coal Monitoring Tool - Institutional Views

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data