Is a December rate cut hanging in the balance?

Powell's hawkish remarks caused the US dollar index to rise 30 points in the short term, approaching the 107 mark again, and the short-term decline of spot gold widened to $10.

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 58.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 29%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 53.6%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 17.6%.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 1 point in December, which has dropped sharply from 82.5% the previous day to 58.9%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged has risen to 41.1%.

Although Powell did not comment on the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting. However, it can be seen that after Trump's victory, the Federal Reserve is also under pressure. If Trump fulfills his campaign promises to lower tax rates, restrict immigration and increase tariffs, monetary policy may face uncertainty, and the Fed may be more inclined to remain unchanged in the face of changes on the issue of interest rate cuts.

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