1. Putin addressed Xi Jinping #台湾 in China, reaffirming support for China's claims over Taiwan and reiterating the strong alliance between the two countries. Although a formal military alliance has not yet been established, the leaders of both countries signed an unlimited partnership agreement in 2022 -- a small advertisement: friends who haven't followed my Twitter can follow @bitvisiontv.
2. A certain country's company has been accused in the U.S. due to the zombie drug and fentanyl crisis. U.S. prosecutors have charged #Hubei Aux Bio-Tech Co., Ltd. and four of its senior employees with exporting fentanyl precursors and zombie drugs like tofenfentanyl, fueling the fentanyl crisis. If convicted, they will face severe penalties, with involved individuals possibly facing life imprisonment.
3. Xpeng Motors has just launched a humanoid robot #Iron aimed at enhancing productivity in electric vehicle factories. It is reported that Xpeng Motors is leveraging its expertise in electric vehicles to enter the robotics field, echoing industry trends, combining automotive technology with robotics to improve factory efficiency.
4. It is reported that China provided 10 trillion yuan in zero stimulus to local governments, possibly transferring some off-balance-sheet debts to the local governments' balance sheets for debt swap refinancing.
5. The S&P 500 index performed very strongly this week, but the breadth of the entire stock market has remained lukewarm. Despite a significant rise in the stock market in the past few days, the number of advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange has relatively slowed compared to declining stocks (Figure 1).
6. The U.S. market relies on foreign capital. Due to #美股 high valuations, excessive inflation may pose risks (Figure 2).
7. In the past four weeks, tech funds have seen the largest outflow of funds in history, following the #纳斯达克 100 index's 40% year-on-year rise. Are investors lowering their earnings expectations before the election?
Analysis: The significant rise in tech stocks is mainly around chip manufacturers like Nvidia. Given Trump's tariff plans, there have been major adjustments in earnings expectations, and a short-term adjustment is also normal (Figure 3).
8. Continuing from point 4, let's discuss China's stimulus measures. Conclusion: China's stimulus measures will not arrive quickly.
Currently, it is just reiterating the debt swap plan, exposing hidden local government debts. If the economic situation sees actual improvement in future stimulus, it should first reflect in the bond market. However, the benchmark yield of the bond market remains at historically low levels. Additionally, the exchange rate has been sold off due to this news and is currently testing the lows after Trump's election.
In fact, all the boosts are aimed at their own stock market, and the domestic stocks are a result of relatively aggressive measures taken for emotional reasons to support the domestic market, even though the initial enthusiasm when the offshore market became popular has faded.
China has a deleveraging problem; however, authorities still focus on asset market sentiment and controlling local governments through debt swaps rather than large-scale restructuring of bad debts and fiscal stimulus measures to support consumption.
9. When #Bitcoin reaches a historical high, it benefits from the subsequent months of rise. The average 3-month return rate after Bitcoin reaches a historical high is twice that of the typical return rate during the same period, and the median 3-month return rate after reaching a historical high is four times that of the median return rate during the same period. We expect the price of $BTC to reach $100,000 in Q1 2025 (Figure 4).
10. Michael Saylor stated: Bitcoin #BTC☀️ ETF could become a white whale in investments. When regulators approve spot ETFs and options trading, they send a signal to all these traditional old-money investors that this is not a tulip bubble. BlackRock also pointed out it is a unique diversification investment tool.
Let's talk about the short-term Bitcoin market. The crypto market seems to still be immersed in the expectations of the election. Due to the upward dynamics of the U.S. stock market, there may be implications for the short-term Bitcoin trend. Therefore, friends who are doing contract leverage should pay attention to short-term risks (775 short - 755 long).
