The results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election were the slowest to be announced since 2000. Due to pandemic restrictions, high early voting, high voter turnout, and narrow margins in swing states, voters and financial markets were anxious, waiting a full four days to confirm Biden's victory.
This year, due to a large number of early voters, many analysts expect it will still take a long time to wait for results. (The Economist)'s predictive model shows both sides are evenly matched, and the election is tight, with either Trump or Harris likely to win by a clear margin. However, results may still be announced several hours after the last polling place closes, as has been the case in seven of the last ten elections.
The earliest states to close voting are located on the East Coast of the United States, with six states (including the swing state of Georgia) ending voting at 7 PM Eastern Time (8 AM Beijing time on November 6). By 9 AM Beijing time, another 19 states will have closed voting, at which point a large amount of data will be released. However, (The Economist) warns that these early data should be treated cautiously; unless there is an overwhelming advantage, they provide little information.
States where voting has ended will release exit polls. However, unlike exit polls in many other countries, this data will not include the percentage of votes for each candidate but will provide information on voter composition, policy positions, and key issues, which will not disclose who will win.
In some states where a candidate has a clear advantage, election results can be announced quickly. Unless there are significant surprises or notable reversals, these states' results have little reference value for the overall election.
Vermont was one of the first states to announce results in 2020, and this year Harris is almost certain to win in that state as well. (The Economist) believes that results not announced immediately are more informative: if Virginia does not announce results shortly after voting ends, it suggests Trump performed well; if Ohio fails to produce results quickly, it may benefit Harris.
The first results may not reveal much information either. In many states, larger cities that lean Democratic count votes slowly, so early counts may show a Republican trend. This effect was amplified in 2020 in some states because mail-in ballots, which lean Democratic, were counted the slowest, leading to a phenomenon known as 'blue shift': early leads for Republicans were later overtaken by Democrats, prompting allegations of election fraud.
What are the first clear indicators on election night? (The Economist) points out that one indicator to watch is the change in county-level election results between 2020 and 2024. By comparing the results of completed counting in counties, changes in support for the two party candidates can be measured.
(The Economist) provided an example. Pennsylvania has 67 counties; assuming preliminary results come from counties where Biden won by 10 percentage points in 2020 and these counties now show Harris leading by only 5 percentage points, if this change occurs statewide, Trump would be expected to win the entire state of Pennsylvania by 4 percentage points (Biden won the state by 1 percentage point in 2020).
After the first states announce their results, the election situation will be further revealed. Florida had results before midnight Eastern Time in 2020; although the state might not have fierce competition, it could still indicate who has the upper hand. (The Economist) found through model predictions that if Harris is trailing by 7 percentage points in that state, she still has a 50% chance of winning the presidential election, and if she trails by more than 11 percentage points, her chances drop to below one-fifth.
Neither of these two indicators is perfect. The first counties and states to complete counting may not be representative. In 2020, Florida leaned towards Trump by 2 percentage points, while the national overall leaned towards Biden by 2 percentage points.
The final results will depend on seven key swing states. (The Economist)'s predictions show that if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she has a 93% chance of being elected president; if Trump wins Michigan, he has a 95% chance of winning.
Among the seven swing states, Georgia and Michigan may count votes the fastest. Georgia requires that results from early voting (which accounts for about 70% of the state's total votes) must be announced before 9 AM Beijing time on November 6; Michigan has changed its laws to allow early processing of early votes, significantly speeding up the process compared to 2020. North Carolina traditionally also counts quickly, but this year it may be delayed due to hurricane impacts.
The final announcement time will depend on how close the election is. In 2000, Florida's popular vote margin was just over 500 votes, and it took weeks to determine to whom the electoral votes belonged. In contrast, in 1984, Ronald Reagan won by a landslide, and the results were announced at 8 PM Eastern Time that day while voters on the West Coast were still voting.
(The Economist)'s predictive model indicates that in the median scenario, Harris wins the critical 270 electoral votes by less than half a percentage point, but there is also a significant possibility of polling errors, allowing either side to win easily. In one-sixth of its predicted scenarios, the margin in key states exceeds five percentage points—consistent with Obama's margin in the 2012 re-election. If this occurs, results could be known by the morning of November 6th, Beijing time. In three-quarters of its predicted scenarios, the margin in key states is greater than Biden's margin in 2020.
(The Economist) warns that the tail risk of Election Day turning into Election Week, or even Election Month, remains significant. If Wisconsin or Pennsylvania has a margin of only a few thousand votes, it may take weeks to reach a conclusion.
The article is shared from: Jin Ten Data