#美国大选后涨或跌？

View on Bitcoin Market During Election Phase——

In previous articles, including over the weekend, I mentioned a key point that the market during the election phase will revolve around 68800. Both sides can choose operations based on this standard point. On Monday, Bitcoin bounced around 68800, showing numerous wounds, with a clear intention that the market is about to start, not providing a comfortable position for operations.

My article over the weekend also focused on this point, advising everyone to short at 68800, and to continue shorting if it breaks above 69200 and then falls back.

Combining the weekend's market rebound from the support level of 67500 after a peak-to-bottom conversion, then on Monday, breaking through and oscillating around 68800 without accelerating, and then accelerating through 67500 again in the early hours of Tuesday before rebounding, currently all short-term support and resistance levels have become ineffective, and the market has entered an uncontrolled phase. The purpose of this loss of control is also to prevent retail investors from participating.

Since we understand that the market's intention is to prevent retail investors from participating, today we need to find which positions can still allow retail investors to operate, and these positions will definitely be broken.

Currently, the visible position is the resistance of the downtrend line at 69200, which is the last point to short in the short term.

Subsequent market prediction:

If the market continues to decline, then tonight until tomorrow, Bitcoin will need to break upwards through 69200, triggering stop-loss orders for short positions, but it will not reach 71600. Because 71600 is a signal point for the previous reversal downtrend. If it can go up to this level, the area of 71800-72100 is the top range, and many short positions will still enter, directly causing losses.

So now the thinking is clear: it will break through 69200 but will not touch 71600. We can choose to operate in the middle positions.

Short at 70500-70800, with a stop-loss at 71600. Once it goes above 71800, no more shorting should be done.

If the market does not provide the 70500-70800 position to enter short, then after breaking upwards through 69200, we will wait for it to drop back to 69200-68800 before entering short.

Finally, a side note: don't think about bottoming out Ethereum; the bottom for Ethereum has been too obvious. You are still fantasizing about Ethereum's rebound, giving the probability of a rebound, and the hope of bottoming out, but the result can only be that it buries those who try to bottom out.