If Harris is elected, will Bitcoin drop significantly?
I think it is likely to drop first and then rise.
If Trump wins this time, Bitcoin may continue to surge in the short term. However, if Harris wins, Bitcoin might pull back, but that doesn't mean it will decline in the long term.
Because regardless of who is elected, U.S. fiscal policy will expand, just with different intensities. Currently, the Federal Reserve is following a medium to long-term monetary easing policy, so even if Trump doesn't get elected, the trend of monetary easing in the market remains, which will favor the rise in Bitcoin's price in the later stages.In the long run, the impact of the election on the market is actually not significant. The election is just one aspect of the market trend, not the whole. It is not the only factor determining Bitcoin's long-term trend. The fluctuations in the market are more about the interplay of emotions and funds, rather than being solely determined by the election results. The trends of the economy and monetary policy are more important than the election results, especially regarding their impact on market liquidity. Even if Harris is elected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will not change because of the election. Even if Trump is elected, many of his promises are not easy to fulfill. For instance, he wants to dismiss the SEC chairman, which is not straightforward because it requires sufficient justification.
Moreover, preventing the government from selling Bitcoin is even more challenging, as these assets belong to different independent departments and are not under presidential control. Additionally, both Bitcoin and Ethereum's spot ETFs were approved during the Democratic administration, so there are currently no signs indicating that the Democratic Party will hinder the development of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, overall, even if Harris is elected, the crypto space is unlikely to suffer significant damage; the key is still to look at the economy and monetary policy.
