On October 30, Bitcoin failed to reach a new historical high, after rising above 73,600 USD, it was just 100 USD away from 73,777 USD. Unfortunately, funding subsequently weakened, and after several rounds of fluctuations and consolidations, it ultimately fell. On October 31 around 9 PM, BTC accelerated its decline, briefly dropping to around 68,800 USD, and has now receded to around 69,500 USD.
After rising above 2,700 USD, ETH also saw a significant drop, hitting a low of around 2,500 USD, retracting gains from previous days. Altcoins also experienced a widespread decline.
In terms of contract data, 24 hours of liquidation totaled 276 million USD, with long positions liquidating at 247 million USD.
Why did Bitcoin fail to break the historical high? What will the subsequent market trend be?
Before the US election, Harris's support rate in swing states is leading, increasing uncertainty.
The US presidential election will officially begin on November 5, and the market often experiences significant fluctuations in the days leading up to it.
Looking back at the BTC market on the day of the 2020 US presidential election, in the two days prior, the crypto market saw a decline, then rose on the day the election results were announced, followed by another decline in the next two days, and then a steady rise.
Although on the prediction market Polymarket, Trump has an overwhelming advantage (winning probability of 63% to 37.1% over Harris), polls show that the support rate gap between Trump and Harris is only 1%.
Zhao Changpeng hinted that a bull market is expected in 2025
During an interview at the main venue of Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Zhao Changpeng stated that he cannot predict the future but can analyze history. Historically, Bitcoin has gone through a very clear four-year cycle. 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. However, 2012 was a 'recovery year,' which many people do not trace back to. 2016 was also a 'recovery year,' while 2017 saw a surge. 2020 was similarly a 'recovery year,' and 2021 was a bull market.
Based on existing analysis, 2024 should also be a 'recovery year.' What will happen next year is unclear, but in the long run, the outlook for the entire industry remains very positive.
Which cryptocurrencies are worth paying attention to during the US presidential term for speculative opportunities?
$DOGE
The first meme coin, DOGE, has gained political colors largely due to Musk's support for Trump.
On August 20, Musk tweeted that he wants to create a 'Department of Government Efficiency,' abbreviated as D.O.G.E, a concept suggested to Musk by the DOGE community. Trump also responded that if elected, he would establish this department, conduct a comprehensive financial audit of the government, and propose waste reduction. Therefore, the price performance of DOGE has also begun to correlate with the presidential election.
· Current Market Cap: 25.5B
· Price change over the past 14 days: +48%
· Upward Momentum: Musk's posts, mentions during Trump's rallies
$People
People is not centered around presidential candidates; it is a token issued by ConstitutionDAO.
ConstitutionDAO is a decentralized organization established in 2021, aimed at fundraising and bidding for a rare copy of the US Constitution at a Sotheby's auction, raising up to 6,000 ETH, approximately 40 million USD.
At the same time, through the blockchain platform Juicebox, the PEOPLE governance token was issued, allowing investors to exchange 1 ETH for 1 million $PEOPLE. Token holders do not directly own the Constitution but hold the power of community governance. After successfully bidding for the Constitution, the DAO community will vote on how to handle this copy.
However, ultimately they did not win the bid, so ConstitutionDAO announced the end of the project. After processing refund procedures, community members also decided to dissolve the community, but some chose to retain and use the PEOPLE tokens exchanged for Ether, and to carry out other projects in the form of a DAO, making $People a meme coin.
Meme nature, full circulation, low market cap combined with the inherent political attribute related to the Constitution have become the driving forces behind the rise of People.
· Current Market Cap: 386M
· Price change over the past 14 days: -7.6%
· Upward Momentum: Highly correlated with the timeline of the presidential election
