After the non-farm data was released last night, Bitcoin surged to around 71,600, then quickly turned down, testing the support around 68,800 again. Over the weekend, it is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 68,800 to 71,600, with Ethereum also following Bitcoin's trend but slightly weaker, peaking at 2,580 and then retracing to 2,480.
The major changes and directions are still waiting for the results of the U.S. election next Tuesday. Risk capital may once again flood in to push prices further up. Yesterday, BlackRock was still in a buying mode. As a small investor, just follow the main actors. Capital inflow does not necessarily mean prices will rise; similarly, capital outflow does not mean prices will drop in the short term. However, when capital flows out, it is time to sell at a high! Therefore, BlackRock's movements are worth watching closely; we are currently perhaps just in the phase of main accumulation, with the big moves still ahead.
Let's predict the market scenario after the election!
If Trump is elected as expected, then crypto will continue with the current trend.
Using time to exchange for space, BTC is slowly moving up, and altcoins are brewing new plays, waiting for BTC to explode with news flooding in, and altcoins will follow with wealth effects.
If Harris is elected, there is a high possibility of a drop, and Bitcoin will likely test 60,000 again.
Altcoins might still go to the previous location. The low period may last for 2-3 weeks.
Because in 2-3 weeks, the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision will arrive, which may lead to an unexpected rate cut, quickly pulling the market back violently.
People are starting to shout 'the bull is back', but at this time many may have already lost their chips.
Starting from December, altcoins will begin to present various opportunities, and the final bull market will truly begin.
For reference only!
The election countdown has begun. In fact, regardless of who becomes president, the bull market trend will not change, and the bull market cycle will continue. As speculators in the crypto space, we naturally support the understanding king to win, as the understanding king + Musk are obviously more friendly to cryptocurrencies!
However, from a purely betting perspective, one should bet on Harris, as globally, most people still tend to support the understanding king. Because of this, everyone is optimistic about the bets, which is no longer a good transaction.
Entering November, interest rates will continue to be cut this month. As long as the first rate cut is initiated, it will continue until it reaches a reasonable value and then maintain it. Rate cuts + ETF, lower interest rates + massive capital inflow, the upward spiral begins, all that needs to be done is to hold patiently!
With the U.S. election approaching, what are the tradable targets?
High market cap coins: DOGE, People
DOGE
The reason why the first meme coin, DOGE, is joining the political color is closely related to Musk's support for Trump.
On August 20, Musk tweeted that he wants to create a 'Department of Government Efficiency', abbreviated as D.O.G.E, a concept suggested to Musk by the DOGE community. Trump also responded that if elected, he would establish this department to conduct a comprehensive financial audit of the government and propose ways to reduce waste. Therefore, the price performance of DOGE has started to be linked to the presidential election.
Current market cap: 25.5B, 14-day price change: +48%, upward momentum: Musk's post and Trump's rally mentions.
People
People is not centered around presidential candidates but is a token issued by ConstitutionDAO.
ConstitutionDAO is a decentralized organization established in 2021, aimed at fundraising and bidding for a rare copy of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby's auction, raising as much as 6,000 ETH, approximately equivalent to 40 million dollars.
At the same time, issuing PEOPLE governance tokens through the blockchain platform Juicebox, investors can exchange 1 ETH for 1 million PEOPLE. Token holders do not directly own the constitution but have the power of community governance. After successfully bidding for the constitution, the DAO community will vote on how to handle this copy.
But ultimately, the bidding was unsuccessful, so ConstitutionDAO announced the end of the project. After processing refund procedures, community members decided to dissolve the community, but some community members chose to retain the PEOPLE tokens exchanged for ETH and carry out other projects in the form of a DAO, making $People a meme coin.
Meme, full circulation, low market cap combined with the inherent political attributes related to the constitution, have become the driving force for the rise of People.
Current market cap: 386M, 14-day price change: -7.6%, upward momentum: highly correlated with the timeline of the presidential election.
Low market cap coins: MAGA
The concept is an abbreviation of Trump's slogan 'Make America Great Again', and the price trend is closely related to Trump's polls. There are quite a few Trump-themed coins on the market, including Trump, Tremp, Fight, babytrump, etc. The coins that have performed well in the past two weeks include MAGA. Other coins have not seen price increases as expected with Trump's increasing winning probability. If one believes the probability of Trump winning is high, MAGA is a relatively stable choice.
Current market cap: 101M, 14-day price change: +83%, upward momentum: rising with Trump's winning probability.
The market dipped to a low of 68,820, will it drop further?
From on-chain data, when it rose to around 73,000, the main holders in the 65,800-68,700 range took profits.
Previously, during the pullback to 69,500, when it dipped around 65,500, the main holders in the 60,000-66,000 range sold off, then there were large buy orders in the 65,000-65,800 range, until it was pushed up to around 73,000. Now this wave has dropped from around 73,000, from the chart, there is buy support at 68,800, and data shows support at 68,700, then 68,000, 67,200, and the next level is the previous wave position at 66,500.
So next is about 68,700, will it continue to drop?
If speculation on recession expectations occurs, there is risk; if not, it won't drop deeply. At the same time, it is the countdown to the U.S. election results. It has been said multiple times that the volatility in these days will be significant, and today and tomorrow are the weekend, with low liquidity.
So one must be cautious.
