Although tonight's non-farm data is not as exaggerated as the negative value predicted by Bloomberg on Monday, the 12,000 new jobs are also quite explosive. Let me share my understanding:

1. If you only look at the 12,000 new jobs, you will think that a major recession is coming. This is also because Bloomberg's previous over-exaggerated forecast, because the explosive data brought about by unconventional factors such as two super hurricanes and Boeing workers' layoffs have made the market feel confident. At least we know that the gap in new jobs in October is not due to the problem of the economy itself, but rather brings optimistic expectations for the extent and rhythm of interest rate cuts.

2. Looking at the 4.1% unemployment rate and 0.4% hourly wage month-on-month, it further dispels concerns about recession. In addition, the just-released October S&P manufacturing PMI of 48.5, higher than the previous value and expectations, although it is still below the boom-bust line, after all, there were super typhoons and strikes in October. The manufacturing industry can still strengthen, which at least shows the resilience of the old American economy.

3. The extremely low new non-agricultural data and the expected unemployment rate, plus the higher-than-expected manufacturing PMI, can dispel recession concerns and increase the probability of a soft landing, while also bringing optimistic expectations for the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts, which is good for risk markets in the short term.

4. At the same time, it can also further hedge the second-order transmission of the recent market's Trump victory trade, which has gone from being considered good for the market to being worried about future inflation rebound and continued strength of the US dollar. I talked to an old friend last week and felt that the US dollar index and US bond yields were both at a strong pressure level. These two days will pull the market's attention back from the election to the economy and inflation, but the most important thing is the result of the election.

This will determine the policy direction of the economy, industry, fiscal and monetary policies for a long time in the future, and thus influence the market trend.