On Thursday, the U.S. released data showing:
The September PCE price index year-on-year was 2.1%, in line with the expected 2.1%, with the previous value revised from 2.2% to 2.3%; the September core PCE price index year-on-year was 2.7%, higher than the expected value of 2.6%, unchanged from the previous value of 2.7%; initial jobless claims for the week were 216,000, lower than the expected value of 230,000, with the previous value revised from 227,000 to 228,000. The core inflation indicator, the PCE price index, exceeded expectations, causing U.S. stock indices to open lower, with the Nasdaq index down 2.5% intraday, the S&P 500 index down 1.5%, the Dow Jones index down 0.5%, gold down 1.4%, and BTC down 3%.
Back to the point:
Cointelegraph reports: Microsoft shareholders have begun to vote on whether the company should invest in BTC. Previously reported, Microsoft listed the issues to be discussed at the next shareholder meeting in its Form A filed with the SEC on October 24, including a proposal suggesting that the tech company should explore BTC as a hedge against inflation and other macroeconomic impacts. The SEC has officially accepted Grayscale's application to convert the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (code: GDLC) into an ETF, and the SEC is soliciting public opinion. Grayscale seeks to convert a mixed cryptocurrency fund containing BTC, ETH, Solana, XRP, and Avalanche into an ETF. MicroStrategy announced its financial performance for Q3 2024, stating that as of the end of Q3, it held 252,222 BTC. The company also announced a $42 billion capital plan, intending to raise $21 billion in equity and issue $21 billion in bonds over the next three years, using additional capital to purchase more BTC as a financial reserve asset to achieve higher BTC yields. Kaiko research reports that last week, BTC experienced a brief discount of around 1% in the South Korean market, marking the second discount since September. Notably, previous occurrences of "negative Korean market premiums" often indicated that a broader rebound in the cryptocurrency market was forthcoming. However, this time the market remains full of uncertainty during the upcoming U.S. elections.
CoinShares' latest third-quarter mining report shows that the cost of BTC has risen to record levels, approximately $49,500/BTC. QCP Capital indicates that BTC's price movements have been notable in recent days, with strong inflows into spot ETFs, a new round of monetary easing in major economies, and the rising possibility of a pro-crypto Trump election as positive catalysts. This week's focus is on Friday's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to lock in market bets on the Fed's next actions. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in November is 96.5%, and the probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 75%. CZ stated in an interview during the Dubai Blockchain Week that he cannot predict the future but can analyze history. Historically, BTC has gone through very clear four-year cycles: 2013 and 2017 were bull markets, 2012 and 2016 were recovery years, and 2017 saw a sharp rise; 2020 was also a recovery year, while 2021 was a bull market. Based on existing analysis, 2024 should also be a "recovery year"; what will happen next year is unclear, but CZ remains very optimistic about the entire industry. On October 30, the net inflow into the U.S. BTC spot ETF reached $896.3 million, marking the second-highest historical level (the previous highest was $1.05 billion on March 12), with BlackRock's BTC ETF seeing a new high since its launch with inflows of $875 million. The holdings of the U.S. spot BTC ETF have exceeded 1 million BTC.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the total holdings of BTC ETFs are expected to exceed Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings (approximately 1.1 million BTC) by mid-December. If Trump is elected, we may see a surge in FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment, accelerating this process. BlackRock officially updated its spot BTC ETF holding information, stating that as of October 30, BlackRock IBIT holds 429,185 BTC, exceeding 2% of the total BTC supply, with a market value exceeding $30.86 billion. 10X Research analysts noted that when BTC first sets a new high within six months, a median return of 40% is typically seen in the following three months. A 40% increase from the current market price of $73,000 would push BTC past $101,000 by January 27, 2025. Additionally, institutional investors like BlackRock have begun to view BTC as a long-term stable asset, with net inflows into BTC spot ETFs reaching $4.1 billion in October alone. 10X Research holds an optimistic view on the short-term rebound of ETH but remains skeptical about its long-term prospects unless any innovations can change its stagnation trend. On Thursday, the U.S. released data showing: the September PCE price index year-on-year was 2.1%, in line with the expected 2.1%, with the previous value revised from 2.2% to 2.3%; the September core PCE price index year-on-year was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%, unchanged from the previous value of 2.7%; initial jobless claims for the week were 216,000, lower than the expected 230,000, with the previous value revised from 227,000 to 228,000.
After the data was released, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2.5% intraday, the S&P 500 index down 1.5%, the Dow Jones index down 0.5%, gold down 1.4%, and BTC down 3%. The core PCE for September recorded 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6%. The overall PCE price index year-on-year was 2.1%, the smallest annual growth rate since early 2021, continuing to approach the Federal Reserve's 2% target; the annualized growth rate of the overall PCE index for the third quarter was 1.5%, down from 2.5% in the second quarter. The data released tonight marks an unexpected upturn in major economic reports over the past month, which may indicate that the Federal Reserve will take a cautious stance on interest rate cuts in the coming months. After the PCE inflation data was released, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November remained at 96.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December was 69.7%. A rate cut at the Fed's November meeting remains the most likely outcome. Citigroup believes that there is still room for gold prices to rise to $3,000 per ounce in the next six months, as the U.S. job market continues to deteriorate and demand for gold ETFs rises. Economic research firm Capital Economics states that in the coming months, the outcome of the U.S. election will not have a significant impact on most commodity prices, and they are optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise in 2025. The economic data released on Thursday is not expected to affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next Thursday; the Fed rarely does anything that does not align with market expectations, and a rate cut remains the most likely outcome.
BlackRock's BTC ETF recorded a record inflow of $875 million on Wednesday, since the SEC approved the listing of the BTC spot ETF in January, BlackRock IBIT has held over 2% of the total BTC supply (429,185 BTC, with a market value of approximately $30.86 billion). Institutions are entering this space, adoption rates are rising, and ETF inflows are ongoing. An inappropriate example. Currently, the rise of BTC is reminiscent of the period from 2022 to 2023 when the Fed continuously raised interest rates, causing U.S. money market funds to accumulate a record $6.5 trillion in cash (risking assets in the U.S. stock market/cryptocurrency market, etc.); with the Fed's rates stagnating in 2024 and a rate cut in September, the U.S. stock market and BTC rose, with the Nasdaq breaking historical highs on October 29 and BTC rebounding to $73,000. In the cryptocurrency market, BTC is equivalent to the Federal Reserve for altcoins (there exists both sucking and spillover); when BTC is at a high, other coins may feel profit-taking spillover and institutional inflow, and other coins' bull markets usually lag behind BTC. Based on past experiences, when BTC is strong, there's no need to worry about a bull market; what should come will come. (The bull market process is full of bumps; beware of risks)
