The Nasdaq index reached 18,700 points, setting a new high; gold rose to $2,772 per ounce, also a new high. In the medium to long term, as several central banks around the world have initiated a rate-cutting cycle, the dollar is steadily flowing into stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin approaching historical highs. Morgan Stanley strategists stated: There is no reason to believe the Federal Reserve won't lower rates by 25 basis points in November unless the employment report deviates from expectations.
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According to CNBC, just days after the U.S. Department of Justice warned Elon Musk's committee that its $1 million lottery campaign might violate federal election laws, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner filed a lawsuit against Musk's Political Action Committee (PAC) to stop the $1 million lottery event for voters. The Information reported that Meta Platforms (META.O) is developing an AI search engine to reduce reliance on Google and Microsoft. Apple Intelligence officially launched on iPhone, iPad, and Mac. On October 29, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index reported a score of 72, remaining at the 'greed' level for two consecutive weeks. On October 29, the total cryptocurrency market cap rebounded to $2.507 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 2.2%. CoinShares reported that the inflow of dollars into digital assets last week reached $910 million, pushing the total inflow year-to-date to $27 billion, nearly three times the record high in 2021. ETH saw an outflow of $35 million last week. Options traders expect that regardless of who wins the election, BTC will reach $80,000 by the end of November, setting a new record high. ETH/BTC briefly fell below 0.036 this morning, hitting the lowest level since the bull market peak in 2021. ETH founder Vitalik Buterin responded to @0xgawswolf's inquiry about whether he is 'retarded' by saying: 'Yes.' Tyr Capital CIO Edouard Hindi stated that BTC prices may surge significantly before the U.S. election on November 5, but analysts warned that regardless of the winner, a sell-off may occur in the days following the election results, and profit-taking may put pressure on BTC prices in the days after the announcement.
It is believed that regardless of the election outcome, BTC may regain momentum in the medium term and aim for new highs in 2024. On October 28, ETH's MVRV was approximately 1.2, indicating that its market value is slightly above its realized value. Historically, when ETH's MVRV is below 1, it typically signals panic selling among investors and is a favorable accumulation phase. MVRV readings above 2, particularly in the 2-3 range, indicate that ETH prices are overheated, suggesting that the upward trend may be nearing its peak. The MVRV index is used to compare the current market value of an asset to its realized value, indicating whether the asset's trading price is above or below the average purchase cost of most investors. On October 28, the net inflow for the U.S. BTC spot ETF was $472.6 million; the U.S. spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $1.1 million, with Grayscale ETHE experiencing a net outflow of $8.4 million. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that over the past year, the net inflow into the U.S. spot ETF reached 278,000 BTC, while large addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC, excluding CEX and mining pools) had a net inflow of 670,000 BTC, indicating that institutions are allocating BTC through custodial services at a scale approximately 2.4 times that of ETFs, and the demand for allocating BTC through custodial services is rising. Analyst Rekt Capital stated that BTC's consolidation may soon end, as prices could be on the verge of a breakout. Historically, BTC peaks between 518 to 550 days after halving, although the consolidation period post-halving is long, BTC volatility indicators show that there is still an expectation for a price breakout.
Scott Rubner, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, stated that the upcoming U.S. election has triggered unease on Wall Street, believing that many investors are either expecting or hoping for a short-term correction that may not materialize. U.S. stock indices typically perform strongly in November and December, and the election could lead to a 'clearing event for risk assets' and an immediate rebound, as the 'fear of missing out' (FOMO) sentiment will drive investors to chase prices. If history serves as a reference, just one repurchase could result in over $100 billion flowing into the stock market, and he expects the S&P 500 index to reach 6,000 points by the end of the year (currently at 5,837 points). Barclays analysts believe the election is overhyped, and the macroeconomic impact may be minimal. In most outcomes after November 5, the market's subconscious reaction could be a mild relief rebound, allowing financial markets and investors to move forward. Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner stated: There is no reason to believe the Federal Reserve won't lower rates by 25 basis points in November unless there is a significant surprise in the employment report. Analyst Wil Stith indicated that if the inflation data released on Thursday is stronger than expected, and Friday's nonfarm data is hotter than anticipated, the Fed could discuss pausing rate cuts. Analyst Jamie Cox mentioned: Regardless of the data, the Fed is already on track to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, and it is unlikely to change this trajectory.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin continued to rebound close to $73,000, with an increase of 6.3%, while ETH rose by 7.5%, and altcoins followed suit. The Nasdaq index reached 18,700 points, setting a new high; gold rose to $2,772 per ounce, also a new high. In the medium to long term, as the global central bank rate-cutting cycle begins, the dollar is steadily flowing into the U.S. BTC spot ETF, with a net inflow of $472.6 million yesterday. If history is any guide, U.S. stock indices typically perform strongly in November and December, and Bitcoin has a similar historical pattern. This Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, attention should be paid to several U.S. economic data releases, including ADP employment numbers, GDP, PCE price index (previous value 2.7%, expected value 2.6%), non-farm employment (previous value 254,000, expected value 123,000), and unemployment rate (previous value 4.1%, expected value 4.1%). Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is about 95%, hoping that the data meets expectations to ensure the Fed can smoothly cut rates in November, supporting the subsequent bull market advance. (If history has any reference value, when Bitcoin is at a fear of heights, profit-taking will spill over to other coins)
