On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices continued to reflect the 16th anniversary of the release of the BTC white paper, with Gary Gensler speaking out as the SEC accelerates its regulation of the crypto market! The Nasdaq index fell over 2% during the day, the S&P 500 index declined by 1.3%, and the Dow Jones index also fell by 1.3%. Spot gold saw fluctuations, once breaking through the historical high of $2750/ounce during the day, but fell below $2720/ounce in the evening, with an intraday decline of 1.3%; the crypto market followed suit. Wells Fargo raised its end-of-2025 target range for the S&P 500 index to 6200-6400 (currently at 5787 points), from a previous forecast of 5900-6100.
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Gary Gensler, head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), congratulated the BTC white paper on its 16th anniversary with "sweet sixteen" (the white paper was published on October 31, 2008), but stated that the SEC will continue to consider the risks of digital assets to investors and the enforcement practices to help promote the market, protect investors, and facilitate capital formation and intermediate markets—this is what we will continue to do. U.S. Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand stated that it would be great if a bill like FIT21 could be completed during the "lame duck" session (after the election), which would create a federal framework for regulating digital assets. French Hill, vice chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, expressed the same view, agreeing that multiple cryptocurrency legislations should become law before the New Year, legalizing most areas of the cryptocurrency industry. Australia's Monochrome spot BTC ETF, as of October 22, held 156 BTC. The Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced it raised $66 million through an equity subscription program, currently holding 861.4 BTC, and its stock price has increased by 642% year-to-date. Media reports indicate that Trump is expected to record an interview with podcast giant Joe Rogan on Friday, which will be held at Rogan's studio in Austin, Texas. According to Coinglass data, a total of 37,278.57 BTC flowed out of CEX in the past 7 days. Hedge fund giant Paul Tudor Jones expressed concerns about the direction of U.S. debt and stated that he currently favors gold and BTC as investment choices, being long on both, believing that all roads lead to inflation.
Analyst Omkar Godbole stated that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of BTC has begun to rise and looks set to exceed the 200-day SMA in the coming days, confirming the so-called "golden cross", indicating that short-term price momentum exceeds long-term momentum, which may evolve into a bull market. Indicators based on moving averages are often criticized as lagging signals, potentially leading traders to the wrong side of the market; while this view is generally correct, golden crosses have indeed preceded major bull markets (May 2020 and October 2023). The SEC approved options trading for multiple BTC spot ETFs, with analysts expecting this to increase short-term market volatility for BTC. Kbit CEO Ed Tolson believes retail investors will use BTC ETF options for speculation, potentially amplifying price fluctuations, while institutional market makers are expected to be on the other side of these trades. In the long run, institutional investors adopting yield-generating strategies may reduce overall volatility. On October 22, the net outflow from the U.S. BTC spot ETF was $79.12 million; the net inflow for the spot ETH ETF was $11.90 million. BlackRock's official update on spot BTC ETF holdings shows that as of October 21, BlackRock's IBIT holdings reached 391,484 BTC, with a total market value of $26.453 billion. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that, according to Form 13F filings, institutional holdings in the U.S. spot BTC ETF account for approximately 20%, with asset management companies holding about 193,000 BTC.
On Wednesday, U.S. stock indices continued to open lower, with the Nasdaq index falling over 2%, the S&P 500 index declining by 1.3%, and the Dow Jones index also falling by 1.3%. Spot gold saw fluctuations, once breaking through $2750/ounce, setting a historical high, but fell below $2720/ounce in the evening, currently down by 1.3%; BTC fell by 2%. QCPCapital stated that the correlation between U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market has reached a historical high of 0.83. Considering its mean-reversion trend and different options market positioning, it may signal an impending market turning point. The election constitutes a zero-sum game for the stock market; the S&P 500 index is at historical highs, with performance depending on election results. If the U.S. stock market shows weakness, it may prompt capital to shift to the cryptocurrency market. Federal Reserve officials hinted at a slower pace of interest rate cuts, with Fed's Schmied stating that a cautious and prudent approach seems appropriate; Fed's Kashkari and Logan also expressed caution about rapid rate cuts. Since the first rate cut last month, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by 34 basis points. Deutsche Bank strategist Steven Zeng stated that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects a reduced likelihood of recession risks, limiting Powell's options for aggressive rate cuts. Interest rate swap trading shows that traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 128 basis points before September 2025, compared to a pricing of 195 basis points a month ago. JPMorgan stated that over the next 10 to 15 years, U.S. large-cap stocks are expected to achieve an annual return of 6.7%, making them attractive investment vehicles.
Wells Fargo raised its end-of-2025 target range for the S&P 500 index to 6200-6400 (currently at 5787 points), from a previous forecast of 5900-6100. UBS predicts that the U.S. economy will "not land" and that ongoing economic growth and a strong job market will drive the S&P 500 index to reach 6600 points by the end of next year, upgrading its rating on U.S. stocks from neutral to attractive. Wall Street analysts attribute the current decline to uncertainties regarding market conditions after the U.S. election and the cautious rate-cutting stance expressed by Fed members. The financial market's regularity of "buying the news, selling the facts" does not significantly alter the bullish outlook for stock indices and the crypto market; small firms, Wells Fargo, UBS, and others have even raised their stock index expectations. The correlation between U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market has reached a historical high of 0.83, with U.S. stocks retreating and the crypto market following suit. The election on the 5th and the Fed's interest rate meeting on the 8th, based on the high correlation between bitcoin and U.S. stock indices, could become a turning point for the end of this cycle's adjustment.
