The total amount of US national debt has exceeded 36 trillion dollars, reaching a new high, with an increase of 1 trillion dollars in just 3 months. Morgan Stanley predicts that the strength of the dollar will peak by the end of the year, after which it will enter a bear market pattern, declining slowly by 2025. The dollar often shows an inverse relationship with so-called risk assets. On Monday, the Dow Jones futures index hit a historical high, currently up 0.6%, with the bull market rebounding.
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The latest report released by the American independent research institution Federal Budget Accountability Committee shows that the total amount of US national debt has surpassed 36 trillion dollars this week, reaching a record high. From the end of July this year, the total US national debt was 35 trillion, and it has now risen to 36 trillion, taking just over three months. European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated that based on the current situation of the European economy, interest rates must be cut again in December. The European Central Bank has already cut rates three times and is expected to cut rates again next month. Last Friday's PMI data showed an unexpected contraction in the eurozone's private sector economy, with the market betting that the bank may further cut rates by 50 basis points. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, since the beginning of this year, Musk's net worth has grown by 52%, reaching $347.8 billion as of November 22, a record high. Polymarket's price prediction for BTC this month indicates a 12% chance that BTC will reach $110,000 this month and a 32% chance that it will reach $105,000. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that BTC may reach $100,000 by the end of this year and $250,000 by the end of 2025. He advises those experiencing a bull market for the first time to remain rational and cash out at the right time. If one always holds the emotion of 'I can make more', it will ultimately lead to the loss of already possessed wealth! Charles Schwab Corp. President Rick Wurster stated in an interview with Bloomberg Radio that once US regulations allow, the company will consider offering spot cryptocurrency trading. When the US regulatory environment changes, the company will enter the spot cryptocurrency field and is preparing for this possibility.
Matrixport stated that last week BlackRock launched BTC ETF options, with active trading volume and steadily increasing open interest, indicating that investors' expectations for BTC's future rise are strengthening. The price may enter a more stable upward phase, or further reduce implied volatility. The increase in options trading demand and large transactions may further drive prices up. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the BTC market has not yet entered a bubble phase. In terms of realized market capitalization, the growth relative to cumulative on-chain inflows is not significant. Based on the current steady upward trend of realized market capitalization, there is still room for price increases, with a target of $141,000. Realized market capitalization is measured by calculating the total value of all BTC at their last on-chain transfer. Historical data shows that during bull markets, market capitalization often exceeds realized market capitalization and peaks when retail investors enter; while during bear markets, market capitalization may fall below realized market capitalization. Last week, BTC ETF inflows were $3.376 billion, of which BlackRock IBIT accounted for $2.054 billion and Fidelity FBTC accounted for $773 million. On November 21, BTC's market share rose to about 60%, the highest in this cycle. This Monday, BTC's market share fell to about 56%, while the market share of other cryptocurrencies significantly increased, and prices began to rebound. According to Cointelegraph data, from November 2024 to now, stablecoin issuer Tether has added more than $15 billion in stablecoins.
The total amount of US national debt has exceeded 36 trillion dollars, reaching a new high, with an increase of 1 trillion dollars in just 3 months. The US debt continues to grow, and Trump is better at spending money. Morgan Stanley predicts that the strength of the dollar will peak by the end of the year, after which it will enter a bear market pattern, declining slowly by 2025 (the dollar is referred to as a so-called safe-haven asset, while the US stock market / gold / cryptocurrency market are referred to as so-called risk assets, with both often showing an inverse relationship. On Monday, the Dow Jones futures index hit a historical high, currently up 0.6%; the S&P 500 futures index rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq futures rose 0.4%. In the past two days, BTC's market share has decreased by 4%, with some cryptocurrencies rising to new highs for the second half of the year or new highs for the year. The time that Bitcoin stays at a high level is the time for other cryptocurrencies to catch up, which often happens in a bull market. Last week, from the perspective of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts / BTC's market share / capital greed, a simple analysis showed that the bull market is far from peaking, and one should avoid being emotional in a bull market. The short-term factors affecting the market are Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the US inflation indicator PCE price index (previous value 2.7%, expected value 2.8%), with the current probability of an interest rate cut in December at 52.7%, and Wednesday's data will influence the probability of a rate cut in December. Today's excerpt contains a lot, so I won't write much analysis, just maintain a regular schedule.
