The cryptocurrency world requires ideas and formulas. The more things you have in your mind, the smaller the chance of losing money and the easier it is to make money.
In the final analysis, we cannot change the cryptocurrency world, but we can defeat ourselves. Today’s article has a lot of words, and it is also some operations and experiences that I think are somewhat useful.
Over the years, I have paid a lot of tuition fees in the cryptocurrency circle, but I have gained more experience. Generally speaking, the gains outweigh the losses.
Found a truth:
Any investment must be a race against time, a battle of wits and courage with the dog dealer, a race to see who can run faster, and it must be relatively reasonable. However, not all assets need to run faster. There are very few investments that have a very long bull market cycle, which may even last for ten years or a hundred years. These assets will continue to appreciate, and will only wash the dishes intermittently, but the overall value will still be higher and higher.
For example, gold has been a hard currency for hundreds or even thousands of years, and its value over the past few decades, when viewed in a small frame, has twists and turns. But when viewed long-term, it forms a 45° upward line that seemingly reaches the sky. In the past decade, Bitcoin has also been this type of asset and is believed to potentially last for a century.
Such assets are very rare and usually possess two attributes: anti-inflation (relatively not infinitely issued) and safety (real gold is not afraid of fire). Besides that, stocks and altcoins can be called capital games; they are all 'fast-running games.' Through these years of playing fast-running games, I have summarized some experiences; even if I can't keep winning, I can often win.
These experiences, in fact, I have mentioned many times in the past. They are systematic in my mind, but some things are still difficult to convey in words.
1. On the 26th of last month, I bottom-fished A-shares at 2764 points.
In fact, below 3000 points, bottom-fishing A-shares is completely fine; the key is to be gradual or to dollar-cost average. This is a strategy that is hard to lose money with. Most people lose money in A-shares because they enter too early, too aggressively, without position management, and cannot withstand short-term fluctuations, leading to losses.
Recently, the surge in A-shares has allowed many old investors who entered the market two or three years ago to break even, only taking a week, which already indicates a problem.
So, the new investors entering after a big rise must be stuck; they are following the trend.
This can also be avoided, for many old investors and elites; it can be avoided.
If you're stuck this time, as long as you have enough patience and invest in batches, you won't be stuck. It's just that short-term leveraged gains are what you lose.
Why did the A-shares surge after the US interest rate cut this time?
Interest rate cuts should lead to rises, but in the months leading up to the US interest rate cut, the market has long instilled the sentiment that a rate cut might lead to a counterintuitive plunge.
Under this emotional boost, it will cause: retail investors to concentrate on selling, bearish sentiment to rise, while the big players absorb and bottom-fish.
Last month, after the US interest rate cut, there were successive positive news domestically, with a clear attitude to drive the market up. I still remember that on the first day, the rise was not too high, from over 2600 points to over 2700.
Personally, I think the stock market is more suitable for right-side entries, so this is also where I increased my position. Since then, it doesn’t matter what you enter; Wang Ge frankly admits to not understanding stocks and lacking qualifications, so I only explore direction.
On the 26th, a fan saw A-shares surge, resulting in liquor stocks soaring while technology stocks performed poorly, which was a bit frustrating. In fact, this is somewhat similar to the cyclical rise in cryptocurrency, where events occurring in the crypto world appear in A-shares.
When encountering such cyclical trends, one must change their thinking.
With the overall market rising and technology stocks languishing, is this an opportunity? So I reminded twice before and after the holiday to fear heights and buy low. The rise in liquor stocks before the holiday is a risk, while the languishing tech stocks before the holiday are an opportunity.
Recently, technology stocks have hit the upper limit for two consecutive days, almost equally benefiting everyone, and today is no exception.
Clearly, the A-share market cannot broadly rally yet, so switching positions becomes a good choice. Most people may only complain about the sluggishness of their holdings but cannot hold on to the downturn and seize opportunities.
Today, A-shares are at 3200 points for many reasons, but primarily I think it may be related to the China-US financial war. This interest rate cut may be a turning point, as it represents the first recognized compromise from the US, signifying a back-and-forth situation.
However, skyscrapers cannot be built in a day.
The A-share market will experience a bullish market in the mid to late stages of the US interest rate cut, or when it drops below 1%. At that time, even looking at 3200 points won't seem high.
The above is the opinion of an old investor who is not very professional in individual stocks but understands human nature and trends.
Financial interconnectivity means that as long as you have relatively unique and correct insights, making money is not difficult.
2. Buy Bitcoin first after the overall market declines, then switch to altcoins.
In previous rounds of significant declines, I mentioned bottom-fishing below 20,000 and 25,000, which I have previously pointed out.
Recently, at Bitcoin's 49,000, 55,000, and 61,000 levels, I often mentioned that during the initial phase of a big drop, you can bottom-fish Bitcoin. Once Bitcoin stabilizes, you can switch to altcoins. After a single altcoin surges, you can continue to sell and switch.
From September to October, up to now, I have bottom-fished SUI, FTM, ETHW, CELO, RWA, and chain games in succession.
In fact, most altcoins can be purchased, except for those that haven't moved at all during the bull market. You should not buy those with excessively high market caps and low cost-performance ratios.
Rising first and then rising again, with position changes already surpassing the highest level in half a year.
The good news is that after experiencing the past six months, my position has returned, and many altcoin positions are no longer dangerous.
The most important reason for achieving all this is that before this round of decline, I had already controlled my position to below 50% and insisted on bottom-fishing during the big dips and exiting during the big rises in the following months.
The decline of Bitcoin has now become a means: scaring off retail investors, cleaning up leverage, and washing away bubbles.
Judging altcoins solely from Bitcoin's trend is clearly no longer appropriate in this round of bull market, because Bitcoin's mid-term correction is reasonable, but the correction of altcoins is not.
What has happened in the past cannot be changed. Initially, Wang Ge was a bit surprised, just like this round of chain gaming collapse. Just adjust appropriately; it’s fine not to buy all altcoins.
Looking ahead, whether from a short-term or long-term perspective, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to pull back to the lows of the past few months.
In the past week, ETF data has accelerated inflow; BlackRock holds 391,484 coins, with over 20,000 inflowing in a week, and Grayscale has also begun to see inflows exceed outflows.
Most importantly, a rough estimate shows that after the ETF approval, these institutions’ average cost is around 60,000, based on past capital profit-seeking levels...........
Forget it; just taste it yourself.
3. Leveraged operations after Bitcoin and altcoins hit the bottom.
In the past two months, I have operated with more leverage than before; the specific ideas have been mentioned in previous texts.
I believe after Bitcoin hits the bottom twice—remember, it’s the second bottom—generally, I won’t enter during the first phase of decline. I will wait until the second accelerated decline, find a relatively lower point, and then continue to lower by 1-2 points to open several times looking long, with a stop-loss set to continue lowering by five points.
If you stop out, buy the spot directly the next day, wait for the rise. If it continues to fall, open another long position.
Of course, the likelihood of a second stop-loss is very small. I opened the position at an already extreme level, which I believe should reverse, so it is basically impossible to be that unlucky.
At least in the past two months, I haven't encountered this.
In my personal view, unless the market is exceptionally good for right-side positions, otherwise, you must place orders several points below the current price on the left side; the risk will be significantly lower. If you can enter, you earn; if not, your mentality remains calm, and you don't lose.
4. The trend before altcoins go live on major exchanges determines whether they will cut investors afterward.
After a period of observation, I found.
There are two types of trends before altcoins go live on major exchanges:
One scenario is a stable and normal trend before going live, with a slight increase immediately after going live. This can be directly bought in spot; no need to open a long position.
One scenario is that it has already risen for a while before going live. This trend generally rises first, spikes up, and then begins to decline.
Generally, before a major exchange lists a coin, there should be a confidentiality agreement, meaning the listing news cannot be leaked, and big players should not have the opportunity to accumulate in advance; otherwise, it's too unfair.
However, there are definitely rule-breakers, whether from the project side or exchange staff, who will leak information or engage in insider trading. There’s nothing much to say about seeking profit in this circle.
Those that have risen in advance and unreasonably, no matter the reason, the purpose of going live on an exchange is to cut a batch of investors.
Some time ago, a project called Degen appeared on Coinbase, which is like this.
Yesterday afternoon, MEW went live on the Korean exchange, which is quite a strong exchange. However, MEW had already surged for a while prior to this, so it was an opportunity to sell as well as an opportunity to short.
Looking at the trend on the day after going live, MEW and the previous DEGEN had almost similar trends, both showing a short-term surge followed by a decline. After the decline, there may be a rebound, but generally, it is difficult to break the price point established after going live.
5. No dragon slaying; do not open long positions one or two times.
Many people should still remember TRB, which surged for several months, leading many dragon slayers to be caught.
TRB belongs to a more extreme case, but it also illustrates a point: you cannot slay dragons (which I learned from gambling scams).
In short, some strong currencies and weak currencies cannot be shorted or longed during the first two times when they are quite popular.
Generally, as long as the rate is abnormal, just follow the trend; you cannot go against it.
This tests human nature; generally, I do not recommend touching such coins, whether going long or short.
I remember when TRB rose to over 40, I wrote an article reminding people that if you don't buy spot, it's best not to touch such coins.
Popular coins are those that rank in the top three in terms of gains and may continuously appear on the list. These coins should never be shorted; generally, consider opening a short position during a pullback after the heat wanes, which will be relatively safer.
Everyone will notice that when popular coins are widely discussed and dominate the rankings, shorting becomes difficult. However, when other popular coins start to emerge, these coins will eventually be replaced, leading to a continuous decline.
Therefore, do not open positions on such popular coins at the first opportunity; wait until a while later when a topping structure appears. It’s best to try shorting after a second breakthrough (which often occurs) and not place orders at the current price but rather slightly higher.
If the stop-loss and position settings are reasonable, the cost-performance ratio is incredibly high; initially, I shorted LUNA after its third breakthrough.
Last month, I recommended SUI, which has nearly tripled. This month, SUI experienced two unlocks; the first at the beginning of the month, and when fans asked if they could short, I replied no, as it was slaughtering short positions. The second was on the 14th, after breaking pressure, I suggested considering shorting after the second peak.
This may seem like a casual statement, but it is actually a rule, a principle, and a guarantee for not losing money. If you go against it, doing things without reason, it will be very easy to lose money.
As a result, the trend of SUI after mid-October is no longer strong. I still hold this position; although the decline is not large, the cost-performance ratio is already very high because my risk is 10% of this position. Even if it returns to a new high later, I can still accept it.
Opening contracts should be done rationally and reasonably; without reason, blindly holding onto positions will ultimately backfire. Therefore, Wang Ge only shares experiences and does not encourage everyone to do so.
Having done contracts for two to three years, I have encountered big wins like LUNA and also faced continuous stop-losses, but I have never lost my original intention, which is to maintain reasonable positions. Being able to achieve this is due to the experiences and observations I have had.
However, I understand that most people are not suitable.
Ordinary people are often inexperienced yet love to play; they forget with a slight rise or fall (shouting for rises and crying for falls). Fate has already determined that it will lead to contracts going to zero and losses in the spot market.
Remember, contracts should not be influenced by emotions; maintain emotional stability.
A few last words for the silly brothers struggling on the edge of contracts every day:
Human hearts are always greedy; sometimes, the more hope one has, the more disappointment there is. Therefore, maintain a mindset of clear-headedness.
Contracts are just illusions; the bigger your heart, the bigger your dreams, and the bigger your risks. Don't bear what you can't endure; short-term gains and losses are just dreams until you cash out. One hundred percent, one thousand in hand is reality; everything before cashing out is just a dream.
Note: Market predictions carry risks; this analysis only represents personal views.
