The 10 trillion stimulus plan is coming!

After hearing this news, many people felt that this was simply a "blessing from heaven", but don't be too happy, just think about it carefully.

You may be thinking, if we invest 10 trillion yuan, will our economy take off immediately?

But the question is, can more money really solve all problems? Maybe it is not "helping in need" but "adding fuel to the fire".

Don't forget, the lessons of the last round of 4 trillion are still fresh in our minds.

Can the problem be solved by spending more money?

Yes, this scale of 10 trillion is indeed eye-catching and domineering enough!

But don't forget, having more money does not mean that the problem can be solved. The previous 4 trillion yuan plan was also very ambitious, but look at the results: housing prices soared, local debt snowballed, and the people's wallets not only did not get fatter, but instead turned into a "debt black hole."

So, can the 10 trillion yuan spent this time really help the economy recover? Or will it just make the bubble bigger and bigger like before?

At this point, someone will surely jump out to refute, saying that the "old tricks" of driving growth through infrastructure, consumption, and investment are still effective.

Yes, it does seem to get the economy moving in the short term, but this is only a temporary solution and not a fundamental solution!

If you spend money, will the market's confidence return? Don't forget that when the real estate market was hot a few years ago, houses became financial products.

Now, everyone has a lot of houses, but who dares to spend? When there is too much money, problems such as inflation and asset bubbles arise. The economy has not been boosted much, and people's lives have become even more difficult.

Where would it be worth spending 10 trillion?

Here comes the point: where should these 10 trillion yuan be spent?

If we want to make it truly useful, we must not, as we did in the past, just build a few useless high-rise buildings or engage in some unfinished projects.

In the past, we have seen many of these "face projects" that cost a lot of money but were of no practical use in the end.

Subways, bridges, and parks were built and demolished, demolished and built again, and in the end all that was left was a pile of debt.

If we continue to "flood the market" as we did in the past, we will be wasting this opportunity.

What we should really invest in are science and technology, development, and those areas of healthcare, elderly care, and education that we have long neglected.

These things are the "hard power" of our country in the next few decades, which cannot be reflected by temporary economic figures.

If 10 trillion yuan is spent in these areas, it will not only help us get rid of our dependence on traditional manufacturing, but also lay a solid foundation for our future economy.

Of course, it is not easy to get local governments to spend money accurately. Past lessons tell us that once there is a lot of money, some local officials are prone to "lazy man's" thinking: since there is a lot of money, they might as well spend it lavishly, not spending what should be spent and spending what should not be spent.

Once this mentality emerges, 10 trillion may be ruthlessly wasted, and once the money is spent unclearly, the future debt crisis will only intensify.

Who will pay for this huge sum of money?

It's easy to say that the 10 trillion yuan came from, but where did it come from? It can't just fall from the sky.

The country will most likely raise the money through national bonds or by increasing the fiscal deficit.

But the problem is that our local debts have already piled up into mountains. If we issue more bonds, the financial pressure will only increase. These are real debts that will have to be repaid in the future.

Some people mentioned that social capital could be involved, but the reality is not optimistic.

The implementation of PPP projects has not been smooth in recent years, with problems such as difficulty in implementation and chaotic fund management emerging one after another.

You want social capital to help you share the risk, but people are not fools. If the risk is unclear, who would be willing to "risk their life" with you?

More importantly, if the debt problem breaks out again, who will bear the blame? The state, the companies, or the people?

In recent years, local debt has already been a "hidden danger". Now the 10 trillion yuan pie has been thrown, which may be the final fuse that detonates the hidden danger.

By then, the country will not be able to repay its debts, and the economy will not be saved. Everyone will have to pay for it.

Is the policy of throwing money around really a panacea for solving problems?

There is another very tricky problem. Our country seems to have a "muscle memory" - we spend money when the economy cools down. Pressing the button of spending money works well once, and pressing it twice seems to do no harm, but what if we press it too many times?

Will this 10 trillion stimulus policy make everyone accustomed to this "blood transfusion to prolong life" approach and lose the market's ability to repair itself? In the long run, this is not a good sign.

Do you still remember the 4 trillion yuan spent in 2008? How many companies relied on government funds to survive the crisis, but how many companies collapsed in the market a few years later?

If uncompetitive companies rely on government aid to survive, does that mean there is something wrong with the market itself?

If the government continues to play the role of "good guy" and spends money whenever there is a slight disturbance, where will the motivation for independent innovation of these enterprises and localities come from? An economy that relies on blood transfusions will not go far.

10 trillion, life-saving money or a landmine?

We have to be clear-headed. 10 trillion is not a small amount. It all depends on how it is spent.

If used well, it may really give the Chinese economy a shot in the arm and help us get out of our current predicament; but if used poorly, or even if we repeat previous mistakes, it will ultimately only accelerate us towards a greater crisis!

You know, what we need most at this stage is the adjustment of economic structure, rather than treating the symptoms without addressing the root cause.

In the short term, this money may stimulate consumption and boost employment, but the long-term risks should not be underestimated.

After all, the essence of the economy cannot be solved by "throwing money". What it needs is innovation, reform and real market drive.

Take a gamble and see who will have the last laugh in the end, but the price of this gamble is not something everyone can afford!