With the U.S. presidential election fast approaching, concerns about the potential manipulation of prediction markets are growing. Less than three weeks remain until the election, and on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, fears of possible distortions are surfacing.
The Influence of User "Fredi9999"
The rising odds of former president Donald Trump in the 2024 election seem to be significantly influenced by a Polymarket user named “Fredi9999.” This major bettor is holding pro-Trump bets worth over $20 million, raising questions about the accuracy of predictions, especially after Trump’s odds hit a record 60.2% on October 16.
Unnatural Growth in Trump's Popularity
Alex Momot, CEO of Peanut Trade, has expressed concerns about this surge, which doesn’t align with any significant real-world events. He warns that many people may view Polymarket as a reliable source, potentially shaping their opinions in the real world.
Possible Manipulation by "Fredi9999"
According to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, who monitors political markets, Fredi9999 has a substantial influence on Trump’s prediction market prices. Transaction patterns suggest that Fredi could control up to four of the largest accounts betting on Trump. Deposits of up to $1 million or more are placed strategically to sway the odds in Trump's favor.
Risks of Manipulation and Polymarket’s Reliability
Momot points out that the situation on Polymarket highlights the vulnerability of these platforms to manipulation. As more high-stakes bets are made, the risk of multiple accounts and other tactics aimed at distorting results increases.
Growing Influence of Decentralized Prediction Markets
On the other hand, billionaire Elon Musk believes that decentralized prediction markets might be more accurate than traditional polls. Following his recent boost in support for Trump, Musk argues that these markets could better reflect the real outcomes of the election.
Trump’s Odds Also Rising on Traditional Betting Platforms
Trump’s odds of winning are not only rising on Polymarket but also on traditional betting platforms, albeit to a lesser extent. For instance, on Betfair, his odds are at 58.8%, while on Predictit, they stand at 56%.
Conclusion
As the election nears, the reliability of prediction markets remains an open question, with manipulation posing a real risk. However, Trump’s rising odds, both on decentralized and traditional platforms, indicate that bettors are increasingly confident in his chances of success.
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