• FBI Raid on Polymarket CEO:
• Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, had electronic devices seized by the FBI in a November 13, 2024, early-morning raid at his residence.
• The investigation may relate to Polymarket’s election betting on Trump’s victory, which differed from mainstream polls and attracted large bets.
• Polymarket’s Controversial Role:
• Platform Overview: Launched in 2020, Polymarket uses crypto (USDC on Polygon) for betting on various events, including politics.
• 2024 Election Betting: Polymarket favored Trump well before the election; a French trader reportedly earned $85 million by betting on Trump, drawing attention to potential market manipulation.
• Previous Compliance Issues: Polymarket faced a $1.4 million fine in 2022 for unregistered trading activities, ceasing U.S. operations as a result.
• Sectoral Implications:
• Financial Sector: Increased scrutiny of crypto prediction markets due to concerns over unregulated trading and manipulation risks.
• Regulatory Impact: The FBI’s actions could prompt U.S. regulatory revisions, especially around offshore platforms accessible domestically.
• Political and Social Impact: Concerns about political betting’s influence on voter sentiment; Polymarket’s predictions outperformed polls, spotlighting the shift toward market-based sentiment analysis.
• Global Concerns:
• International Regulatory Attention: France has considered banning Polymarket due to its gambling framework; other countries may follow suit.
• Framework Development: Rising scrutiny could lead to global regulatory frameworks, balancing innovation with oversight.
• Conclusion:
• The Polymarket investigation may set precedents for regulating decentralized, crypto-based prediction markets, potentially influencing financial, legal, and political domains.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Polymarket

#Polymarket bettors believe there is a 46% chance Republican nominee Kamala Harris will take the White House from Democrat rival Donald Trump this election as the U.S. Vice President selects Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, according to multiple reports Tuesday morning. 
Walz's Appeal and Selection
Walz, who has served as Minnesota's governor since 2019, was among several prominent figures considered for the vice-presidential spot. Other contenders included Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Each of these candidates brought their unique strengths to the table, but ultimately, Walz's Midwestern roots and governance experience tipped the scales in his favor.
The decision comes amid a fluctuating landscape of speculation and betting within political circles. On Monday night, bettors on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket had given Shapiro a 57% chance of being Harris' choice, with Walz trailing at 40%. These odds have varied over the past few weeks, with other names like North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper also in the mix.
Although Walz has not been particularly vocal about cryptocurrency, his tenure as governor saw Minnesota enacting legislation aimed at regulating cryptocurrency kiosks. This move, highlighted by the AARP, indicates a level of engagement with the burgeoning digital currency sector, which has become an increasingly significant topic in the political arena.
The cryptocurrency industry has gained considerable attention in recent months, particularly with the Republican Party's recent endorsement. The GOP's platform for the 2024 elections includes strong support for crypto firms and investors, pledging to halt what they describe as an "unlawful and un-American crackdown" on the U.S. crypto industry.
Kamala Harris Campaign Strategy
In response, Harris' team has begun to engage with the #crypto sector, especially after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris as the Democratic Party's nominee. 
To bolster her campaign's position on crypto, Harris recently added David Plouffe to her team. Plouffe, known for his strategic acumen, has a history of involvement with the crypto industry. He has served on the Binance Global Advisory Board and as a global strategic advisor for Alchemy Pay, a firm that bridges crypto and fiat currencies.
As the election season heats up, Harris' selection of Walz and her campaign's outreach to the crypto community signal a nuanced approach to addressing diverse voter interests. The combination of Walz's Midwestern appeal and Plouffe's crypto expertise could prove to be a formidable strategy in the race for the White House.

In a dramatic turn of events, Elon Musk’s recent endorsement of Donald Trump has caused a seismic shift in the prediction markets, catapulting Trump into the lead for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Following Musk's live speech, blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket saw Trump’s odds soar to 51.5%, surpassing Kamala Harris, who had been the frontrunner for weeks with a now-reduced 47.2%.
This isn’t just another political endorsement—it’s Musk. Known for shaking up industries, markets, and now, apparently, elections, Musk didn’t just voice support for Trump. He made a powerful case for prediction markets like Polymarket as superior indicators of public sentiment. Unlike traditional polls, where people can make predictions without commitment, Polymarket requires users to bet real money, meaning every prediction carries genuine financial risk. In Musk’s view, this “money on the line” approach produces more accurate forecasts because people think twice before putting their cash behind a candidate.
Musk’s bold statement comes at a time when traditional polling is under intense scrutiny. Pollsters have struggled to accurately predict recent elections, leading many to seek alternative methods of gauging public opinion. Prediction markets, according to Musk, could be the future of election forecasting.
With Trump now leading on Polymarket, the 2024 race has been thrown into disarray. Could this surge in support be a lasting shift or just a momentary blip? One thing’s certain: Musk’s influence has once again sent shockwaves through the political and financial worlds alike.
In this fast-changing landscape, where crypto meets politics, the real winners are those ready to adapt. Will Polymarket's data prove to be the crystal ball of elections? Only time will tell, but for now, it seems like the race to 2024 just got a whole lot more interesting!
Join the conversation: #WeAreAllSatoshiNakamoto #MuskEndorsesTrump #BTC #Polymarket #Binance

Kamala Harris has seen a significant boost in her chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Polymarket, while Donald Trump’s odds have tumbled.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket has become a hotspot for traders speculating on the outcome.
Looking at the latest data from the platform, the chances of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning the election have jumped to 54%, while those of her Republican opponent Donald Trump have dropped dramatically from 72% to 44%.
The shift in market sentiment is not just a small blip; it’s backed by significant financial stakes. According to Polymarket, Vice President Harris now has $66.9 million riding on her victory, even though Trump still holds a larger share at $75.8 million, despite his declining odds.
Looking at individual players, one of the most notable bettors in this market is a trader going by the pseudonym “serus.” The trader holds the largest number of “Yes” shares for Harris, totaling 2,427,229 shares, with a value of approximately $1.31 million. Serus is currently sitting on an unrealized profit of $374,000.
Harris leads Polymarket as crypto support grows
While the Democratic candidate’s surge may have caught the attention of many, the Republican flag bearer still has a considerable following on Polymarket, with his largest backer, under the moniker “50-Pences,” holding 4,376,933 shares.
Elsewhere, in the popular vote predictions market, Harris is also leading with a 77% chance, compared to Trump’s 22%, showing a strong expectation that she might not only win the Electoral College but also secure a majority in the popular vote.
The uptick in Harris’ presidential probability comes hot on the heels of her campaign’s first virtual sit-down with representatives of the crypto industry. On Aug. 15, the Crypto4Harris initiative hosted a virtual town hall that was attended by the likes of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Stabenow, and investor Mark Cuban.
At the event, Schumer announced that he intends to push for the passing of a bipartisan crypto bill before the end of the year, in a move critics see as intended to curry favor for the Democratic presidential candidate ahead of the November polls.$BTC #Polymarket #BinanceLaunchpoolTON #LowestCPI2021

Former US President Donald Trump has regained the lead against Kamala Harris on Polymarket amid the ongoing DNC Convention.
Donald Trump has moved past Kamala Harris on Polymarket in a swift turn of events. The former United States President is now ahead with a 50% chance of winning the upcoming Presidential elections ahead of Kamala Harris’ 49%. Polymarket has seen its popularity surge ahead of the U.S. elections.
Donald Trump Takes Polymarket Lead
The Republican candidate took the lead in the prediction market over his opponent Kamala Harris. Recent polls place Trump at 50% while Harris at 49%, with a slight lead coming amid the Democratic National Convention. Previously, the United States Vice President took the lead and extended the same on Polymarket after Joe Biden withdrew from the race. This was due to momentum on Kamala Harris’s campaign which saw her chances soar to 52%.
As the campaign intensifies, slight swings are expected on both sides with crypto-related policies moving to the fore. On Aug 19, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) released its party ideals without the mention of cryptocurrencies. Crypto policy watchers say the party needs a clear-cut agenda for the market. As the market becomes mainstream in the coming polls, stakeholders look for pro-industry candidates with several support groups leaning toward the sector.
Previously several crypto and tech leaders have backed Trump although efforts from Crypto4Harris seek to slash the former President’s grip on the industry. Donald Trump’s dominance in the prediction market over Kamala Harris comes after day 1 of the DNC Convention.
Initial reactions after Donald Trump surged in the polls pointed to alleged claims that Kamala Harris would endorse a 25% unrealized gains tax. While this isn’t confirmed, critics took to X (formerly Twitter) to lambast such alleged policy directions. Cardano’s co-founder Charles Hoskinson wrote that a 25% tax on unrealized gains is the most unconstitutional theft proposed by a political party.
“25 percent tax on unrealized gains is the most insane, unconstitutional theft ever proposed by any political party. You didn’t make any money. You have no access to these “gains.” But somehow, a government official will just invent a profit and send you a tax bill. This is theft.”

#Polymarket #BinanceLaunchpoolDOGS #MtGoxRepayments #LowestCPI2021 #BinanceBlockchainWeek

A new HBO documentary has reignited speculation about the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin. This has led to a surge in betting activity on PolyMarket, a decentralized prediction market platform.
Market Highlights:
Betting Frenzy: The HBO documentary has sparked intense interest in Satoshi Nakamoto's identity, driving significant betting volume on PolyMarket.Len Sassaman Leads: Len Sassaman, a computer scientist with a connection to the early days of Bitcoin, is currently the leading contender according to the market.Market Volume: The total market volume for bets on Satoshi's identity has reached $1,007,704.
Join the conversation and place your bet on PolyMarket to see if you can correctly predict who HBO will reveal as the real Satoshi Nakamoto.
$BTC
#WeAreAllSatoshi #HBODocumentarySatoshiRevealed #SECAppealRipple #Polymarket #Debate2024