In order to make a comprehensive judgment and give the best trading advice, we need to integrate the following five aspects: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, market sentiment analysis, on-chain data analysis, and macroeconomic analysis. Based on these factors, I will analyze the probability of Ethereum (ETH) rising or falling in the future, and give position management suggestions and how to use the Kelly formula to manage transactions in a 100x leverage trading environment.
1. Technical Analysis
Through the analysis of the previous candlestick chart, technical indicators such as EMA, Fibonacci, MACD, KDJ, and RSI provide the following key information:
• Support level: Ethereum has strong support in the 2,600 USDT to 2,570 USDT area. If the price pulls back to this level, a rebound may occur.
• Resistance: The upper resistance is at 2,657 USDT (Fibonacci 0.786 retracement level) and 2,700 USDT (psychological level), if these levels are broken, it will bring a strong upward signal.
• MACD: MACD indicator shows a death cross, indicating that there is a short-term correction pressure. However, if the price can stabilize above 2,600 and form a new golden cross, it may rebound.
Technical summary: Ethereum is currently volatile overall, with a high possibility of a short-term correction, but it may rebound at key support levels. If the price can break through the Fibonacci 0.618 and 0.786 resistance levels, it will rise further.
2. Fundamental Analysis
1. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Fed’s interest rate hike policy has a direct impact on the liquidity of the entire market. The Fed’s stance has been relatively tough recently, and although inflation has eased, expectations for interest rate hikes still exist, which may suppress risky assets including cryptocurrencies.
2. Interest rate policies in other countries: Central banks in the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and other countries have also maintained their interest rate hikes, which has also suppressed risk appetite in the global market. However, some emerging markets may gradually shift to loose policies, which may attract some funds into the cryptocurrency market.
3. Ethereum fundamentals: The upgrade of the Ethereum network, including ETH 2.0 staking, Rollup and other Layer 2 solutions, has laid the foundation for the application expansion of Ethereum in the long run. However, in the short term, the market may be more affected by macro policies and overall funding.
Fundamental summary: The Fed's interest rate hike policy has caused funds to flow into safe assets (such as the US dollar and bonds), which has a negative impact on cryptocurrencies. However, the long-term value of ETH is still supported by technological development.
3. Market Sentiment Analysis
1. Cryptocurrency news: There has not been much major positive news to drive the crypto market recently. Instead, news about crypto regulatory policies has increased market uncertainty.
2. Market Sentiment Index: The current market sentiment is neutral or bearish. Investors are more cautious, which may lead to market volatility in the short term.
Sentiment summary: Sentiment is neutral or slightly pessimistic, which may affect price fluctuations in the short term, but sentiment may reverse quickly if there is good news or a breakthrough of key technical levels.
4. On-chain data analysis
1. Large investors’ capital movement: On-chain data shows that the activity of Ethereum’s large investors’ wallets has increased, indicating that large funds have made some moves in the current price range. Some large investors have built positions at low levels, which may support short-term prices.
2. On-chain transaction volume: The overall activity on the chain is relatively stable, and there is no significant increase or decrease in transaction volume, indicating that the market is currently in a wait-and-see state.
Summary of on-chain data: Capital inflows from large households have provided certain support for the market, but the overall transaction volume has not increased significantly, indicating that the market lacks momentum.
V. Macroeconomic Analysis
1. Global economic environment: The global economy is currently in a situation of high inflation and slowing growth. The stock market is turbulent and funds are flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. Against this background, the performance of risky assets (including cryptocurrencies) is suppressed.
2. Commodities and foreign exchange markets: Fluctuations in crude oil and energy prices have a significant impact on inflation. If energy prices rise, it may lead countries to continue to maintain tight monetary policies, which will further suppress the performance of cryptocurrencies.
Macroeconomic summary: Global economic uncertainty has exacerbated market risks, and tight monetary policy has put cryptocurrencies under great pressure. Highly leveraged traders in particular need to be cautious.
6. Comprehensive analysis: probability of rising and falling
Based on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, market sentiment, on-chain data and macroeconomics, we can draw the following conclusions:
• Probability of rising: 55%. In the short term, Ethereum has strong rebound potential at the key support level (near 2,600 USDT). If the price breaks through the 2,631-2,657 USDT range, it may rise further. The inflow of funds from large investors is also a factor supporting the price.
• Probability of a fall: 45%. Macroeconomic and tight monetary policy put pressure on the cryptocurrency market. If market sentiment deteriorates further, it may fall below the current support level, leading to a further price correction.
7. Position Management and Application of Kelly Formula
1. Kelly formula to calculate position ratio
The Kelly formula is used to maximize long-term returns while controlling risk. The formula is as follows:
f^* = \frac{bp - q}{b}
in:
• f^* is the proportion of funds that should be invested
• b is the transaction multiple (leverage multiple, 100 times leverage)
• p is the probability of going up (55%)
• q is the probability of a fall (45%)
Substitute the data:
f^* = \frac{100 \times 0.55 - 0.45}{100} = \frac{55 - 45}{100} = 0.1
According to the results calculated by the Kelly formula, in theory, a position of **10%** can be used to maximize profits.
2. Transaction management suggestions
• Initial position: You can divide 10,000 yuan into 10 parts, and use 10% of the position (i.e. 1,000 yuan) for trading each time. Open a long position near 2,600 USDT or increase the position after breaking through 2,631 USDT.
• Build positions in batches: Do not invest all your funds at once. It is recommended to build positions in batches, such as gradually adding positions at key support levels, and control the position within the initial 10%-20% range.
• Stop loss setting: Strictly control risks. It is recommended to set the stop loss below 2,550 USDT. If the price falls below this area, stop loss in time.
• Position increase strategy: If the price breaks through 2,657 USDT, you can consider increasing your position to 30%-40%, but you should dynamically adjust the stop loss position when adding positions to ensure that the risk is within a controllable range.
3. Risk management and stop loss strategy
• Stop loss ratio: In high-risk transactions with 100x leverage, it is imperative to control the stop loss within 2%-5% of each transaction, that is, the maximum loss each time should not exceed 200 yuan to 500 yuan.
• Gradual profit taking: When the price reaches the upper resistance level, take profit in batches to ensure that the profits are locked.
8. Conclusion
• Probability of rising: 55%, probability of falling: 45%. The current market is in a period of consolidation and there may be a large correction in the short term, but the long-term trend may still be upward.
• Position management: According to the Kelly formula, the maximum position ratio is 10%, and risk management is carried out through batch position building, dynamic stop loss, etc.
• Stop loss and take profit: Strictly control the stop loss below the support level, and gradually take profit according to the price increase.
Through reasonable position management and application of Kelly formula, risks can be effectively controlled and profits can be maximized in 100x leverage transactions.
