Combining the previous technical analysis, market environment and Kelly formula method of managing funds, I will give specific entry and exit points in detail.
1. Key technical points
Based on the previous technical analysis, the following are the key support and resistance levels:
• Major resistance: 2,690 (Fibonacci 0.786 retracement)
• Major Support Levels: 2,631 (Fibonacci .618 retracement), 2,558 (.382 retracement)
2. Long (long order) entry and exit points
Entry point suggestions:
1. Aggressive long entry:
• Entry point: When the price is close to 2,631, you can consider opening a long order. If there is an obvious reversal candlestick pattern near 2,631 (such as a positive-enclosing-negative candlestick, a hammer line, etc.), it can be used as an aggressive long entry point.
• Position: According to the Kelly formula, it is recommended to open positions in batches. The first position can be set at US$1,000 (10% of total funds), and the risk control should not exceed 10% of total funds under high leverage.
• Stop Loss: Below 2,558, it is recommended to set the stop loss around 2,550 (which is the Fibonacci 0.382 support level).
2. Conservative long entry:
• Entry point: If the price falls back to around 2,558, near the Fibonacci 0.382 support level, and there is a clear reversal signal, you can consider entering the long position again.
• Position: Set at $1,250 and gradually increase the position when the price stabilizes.
• Stop Loss: Set around 2,518.
Exit point suggestion:
• First target: 2,690 (short-term resistance), where you can consider partial profit taking.
• Second target: If the price breaks through 2,690 and is followed by heavy volume, the upper target will be around 2,730 (the next resistance area), which is near the Fibonacci extension level and historical highs. Consider exiting in batches.
3. Short (empty) entry and exit points
Entry point suggestions:
1. Aggressive short entry:
• Entry point: When the price is close to 2,690 and cannot effectively break through this resistance level, you can consider opening a short order. It is recommended that when a reversal signal appears, such as a clear Yin-enclosing Yang or other top patterns (such as a double top pattern) in the K-line pattern, it can be used as a short order entry point.
• Position: Set to USD 1,000, manage funds according to the Kelly formula, and enter the market in batches.
2. Conservative short entry:
• Entry point: If the price fails to break through 2,690 and then sharply pulls back to below 2,630 and confirms a break, you can open a short order when the rebound near 2,630 is weak.
• Position size: set to $1,250.
• Stop loss: Set above 2,700 to control risk.
Exit point suggestion:
• First target: around 2,631 (short-term support), you can consider partially closing your positions.
• Second target: around 2,558. If the short position is strong, it is recommended to close all positions near this support level.
4. Risk management and position allocation
Using the Kelly formula we get a 32.5% position, which can help you maximize your profits, but you still need to pay attention to risk control.
• Build positions in batches: Taking a total capital of 10,000 USD as an example, it is recommended that the initial capital for building a position be 10%-15%, such as 1,000-1,500 USD. Observe the market trend. If the direction is correct, you can gradually increase your position to a maximum of 3,250 USD, but ensure that there is a clear trend confirmation each time you add a position (such as the price breaking through the resistance or support level, accompanied by an increase in trading volume).
• Stop-loss strategy: The perpetual contract crypto market is highly volatile. It is recommended to set the stop-loss within the range of 1%-2% of the current price to reduce the risk of liquidation.
5. Conclusion
• Long entry points: around 2,631 and 2,558;
• Long exit points: around 2,690 and 2,730;
• Short entry point: around 2,690;
• Short Exit Points: Near 2,631 and 2,558.
The Kelly formula helps optimize position management. It is recommended to open positions and take profits in batches, and strictly set stop losses for each transaction to prevent excessive losses due to excessive market fluctuations.
