Bitcoin broke through the $66,000 mark again yesterday, just one step away from the all-time high of $73,000. Tom Lee, a well-known Wall Street bull and former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, predicted that the price of Bitcoin will quickly hit the long-term trend line of $73,000 and start a new round of bull market, which is expected to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
This round of Bitcoin's rise is mainly driven by multiple factors:
1. Geopolitical tensions
The current geopolitical situation is tense, and there are unstable factors in NATO, North Korea, the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait. The possibility of intensified conflict between China and the United States also provides rising momentum for transnational safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin. In the context of the possible simultaneous impact of the US dollar and the RMB, investors are more inclined to choose assets with transnational characteristics such as Bitcoin for risk hedging.
2. US ETF investors rush to buy
Data shows that 12 US Bitcoin spot ETFs currently hold more than 920,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4.68% of the total circulation, with a value of more than $60 billion. Among them, BlackRock IBIT, Grayscale GBTC and Fidelity FBTC and other ETF holdings are at the forefront. In addition, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has increased significantly recently, indicating that investors' confidence in Bitcoin is growing.
Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, I personally believe that Bitcoin below $73,000 will be the best range for institutional, retail and other investors to grab chips. Once it breaks through the previous high of $73,000, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise rapidly to $80,000, $90,000 or even $100,000 in a relatively short period of time. In this process, the main funds may collect as many cheap chips as possible through methods such as washing.
The fourth quarter can only be regarded as the starting point of the big bull. The US presidential election on November 5th, the market started ahead of schedule. This is normal. The real big bull usually releases water after the economic crisis, and it is expected to be more obvious next year. If the crisis does not come, it will continue to rise after a soft landing.
