What is the probability of a war in the next five years?

Let's look at it from three perspectives: the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia.

First, Eastern Europe.

Now it's halfway through, and Ukraine can't stand it any longer. Next, it's Poland and NATO's turn. It's estimated that this will become a protracted war in the next one or two years.

Second, the Middle East.

Now it's the Arc of Resistance + fighting Israel together. Israel is holding on with all its strength. Although it has the support of the United States, it will sooner or later collapse if it continues to consume like this. Now it depends on when the US Army will leave. It's always been hit by rockets from the Houthi armed forces and militias, and its face is almost swollen. If the US Army leaves, it will probably be another Vietnam War pit, and the US Empire will be stuck in the quagmire. If the US Army doesn't leave, it will be bleeding bit by bit, and the world will gradually go dollar-free, and finally the face and money will be exhausted.

Third, East Asia.

Other countries at least remain neutral and don't take sides.

There are four unstable factors now: North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. The good news is that Japan, South Korea and the Philippines are not stupid, and no one wants to be cannon fodder. North Korea is a card used by China and Russia to restrain Japan and South Korea. Moreover, Japan and South Korea are not loyal. If the United States is weak, they will definitely jump ship and go alone.

If the East Asian battlefield is opened, North Korea is likely to be the first to take action. India is now gradually being surrounded by China. As long as it does not act out of line, it will not be touched. Otherwise, it is another matter.

What is certain is that among the three battlefields, East Asia is the last to be opened! #BTC