October 6, 2024
The holiday is coming to an end. I don't know how everyone spent the National Day holiday. Anyway, I stayed at home. What is different from the past is that this time I saw more people going out to travel in my circle of friends, both domestically and abroad, and many of them went to Europe. From the data and publicity level, it seems that consumption has declined and economic vitality has declined, but looking at the dynamics of friends, it seems that there is no impact. In any case, it is always good to go out and travel. Traveling can experience different customs and appreciate different regional scenery. Judging from the number of comments, there should be many people who went out to play. You can share one or two in the comment area later.
The market is also in line with the National Day holiday. Except for the concentrated explosion from 65,000 to 60,000 a few days ago, the market has been range-bound in the past few days, and the volatility is negligible, so you can play with peace of mind. Although the market is boring, the importance of low-volatility fluctuations cannot be ignored. Generally speaking, this kind of market is often one of the signals of the bottom range. The longer it lasts, the more exaggerated the future increase will be. Looking at the price of the cake alone, it does not meet the situation of "bottom fluctuation". After all, the price is there, it is more like a wide sideways adjustment, and the bottom fluctuation is mainly judged based on the price of the cottage.
As for when this market will end, it is hard to say exactly when. However, considering the timetable of major events, this round of bearish (corresponding to the previous bullish) adjustment will be completed in 1-2 months at the shortest and 3-4 months at the longest. The next most noteworthy thing is the US election. Musk chose to take a gamble at the last minute, changing his Twitter profile to support Trump and may attend campaign events together. But for neutral capital, it may wait until the election in early November before taking action.
As for the market, the short-term will maintain volatility. It is difficult to go up the pressure of 65,000 in the short term. I prefer another big drop, falling below 60,000, or even approaching 50,000 again. If there is such an opportunity, you must boldly build a position, or even fill it directly. Considering that we have entered the bottom oscillation range as a whole, it is definitely unwise to short the position. I still held 20% of the position at the high position before. At this position, I suggest 50-80%. After all, for spot, time is gradually on our side.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
