$BTC briefly dipped below $60,000, resulting in $144 million in liquidated bullish positions, despite historical data indicating October is the cryptocurrency's strongest month with gains averaging 22% since 2013.
Social sentiment on platforms like #X reflects bearish sentiment on Bitcoin's price recovery.
Rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East are shifting investor attention to commodities such as oil and gold, which is affecting sentiment towards risk assets, including Bitcoin. Players on the platform#Polymarket have mixed feelings about the direction of Bitcoin's price, but are leaning towards a narrow range in October.
Bitcoin's poor start to October, which has historically been its most bullish month since 2013, continued as the asset briefly dipped below $60,000 late Thursday before recovering, resulting in the liquidation of more than $144 million in bullish crypto bets.
BTC traded slightly above $61,300, holding steady over the past 24 hours despite a volatile session in the U.S. market. Ethereum, $BNB BNB Chain and XRP all saw declines of up to 2%, while memecoin $DOGE rose 2% without apparent cause.
The CD20 Index, which measures the largest tokens by market capitalization, fell 1%.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 6% since the start of October, according to data, with the month ending in the red only twice since 2013, delivering gains of up to 60% and an average of 22%, making it the most profitable month for investors. This has affected social sentiment on the X platform, where some users are bearish on a price recovery.
Players on Polymarket have mixed opinions on where the BTC price will go in October. While they have ruled out a shot at $70,000, market participants are more confident that Bitcoin will remain in the $57.5K to $65K range.
However, CoinGlass data shows that most gains come in the second half of the month, while the first week is usually bearish - meaning current price action is still in line with historical trends.
The second and third days of October have ended in positive territory only six times since 2013, with the recovery beginning in the second week and major moves usually occurring in the third week. Price gains of up to 16% are common after October 15.
But that's just data. Ultimately, fundamental and macroeconomic factors influence trading sentiment for risk assets like Bitcoin, and tensions in the Middle East have shifted investor interest toward oil and gold.
Global benchmark Brent posted its biggest one-day gain in almost a year and is on track for an 8% weekly gain since the start of 2023.
On the macro front, markets were rocked earlier this month by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Polymarket players are pricing an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities in October at 63%, but a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is 35%.
The US presidential election looks more tense than ever on the Polymarket platform, with two candidates sometimes comparing results and sometimes battling for a 1 percentage point advantage.
#TREMP , a Solana-based memecoin named after Republican candidate Donald Trump, has risen 14%, while Trump's original MAGA token has remained flat, according to #CoinGecko . Meanwhile, KAMA, a token linked to Kamala Harris, has fallen 7.5%.
