BTC has now reached a critical position of 66,000 and is currently trading in the range of 65,300-66,000.
BT C has formed a large number of locked-in shares in March, May and July. There is a huge selling pressure at 66,000. If this position is broken, it is expected to reach the previous high of 70,000. Space is gained by time.
The short period of oscillation around 64,000 has resulted in a failure to make a comprehensive breakthrough. A major problem at present is that the next interest rate cut may not be until November.
There is a lack of particularly direct positive factors in the middle, so we must guard against pullbacks in October and not go all in at once.
There is a high probability that there will be some movement on the remaining 40,000 coins in Mentougou in October.
At the same time, the ETF has seen daily inflows this week, with 500 million inflows on the 27th and a total inflow of 1.08 billion last week. I'm afraid it will have to take a break next week.
For those brothers who haven’t gotten on board, if there is a pullback in October, it will be a good opportunity to get on board.
The on-chain data in the past few days shows that the stablecoins flowing into the exchange are abnormally strong, and there is no large-scale inflow of BTC into the exchange. Brothers in the car don’t need to panic too much and should hold the coins patiently.
The following market trend analysis:
September will soon be over, and there are only 38 days left before the next interest rate cut. November must be a very good opportunity. Since the 50 basis point interest rate cut on September 19, we have been emphasizing that medium and long-term traders must pay attention and not go short easily.
Now the market has broken through EMA200 and stabilized above 64,500. This signal is very good. The next market will most likely change to a range of fluctuations. It is best not to fall below EMA200, 64,500, and then a big market trend will start in mid-November.
You have also seen the market of altcoins. Many individual tokens have begun to pull up, such as sui, ckb, blur, bigtime, sushi, etc. These have at least doubled since the bottom. Why do these market makers give priority to pulling up these? There must be some foresighted funds and smart money that understand the future market. These tokens are also what we need to pay attention to in the later stage besides BTC and ETH. The presence of smart money and big funds in the front means that you have the opportunity to make money here.
However, judging from the sentiment of the entire market, the sentiment of the entire market has not yet been mobilized. It is relatively calm or quiet. Since July this year, the sentiment of the entire market is like a bear market.
What will happen with the next rate cut?
Regarding the interest rate cut, it will definitely be beneficial to the entire cryptocurrency in the medium and long term, and it will also be the only industry other than real estate and the stock market that has a sufficient scale to absorb the entire capital.
Therefore, the speed of this round of rate cuts and the intensity of the Fed's money printing determine the height of the BTC impact. Regarding this round of rate cuts, we understand one thing: a recession-style rate cut, that is, a serious economic downturn, an increasing number of unemployed people, and ordinary people have no money, and it has reached the point where interest rates have to be cut, thereby stimulating economic development and avoiding the intensification of class contradictions.
At the same time, the Fed’s determination can be seen from the first 50 basis point rate cut on September 19, so the 50 basis point rate cut on November 8 can basically be said to be a certainty. Major media and professional institutions predict that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is over 60%.
Normally, the Federal Reserve will make an interest rate decision on November 8, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. What will happen to the market then?
First: The election plus a 50 basis point rate cut will definitely stimulate a surge in BTC prices. At this time, it will not be a big deal to effectively break through 74,000 and rise to $100,000 as predicted by institutions such as BlackRock and Boston Consulting. At the same time, many copycats will also usher in a good market, and a large number of coins that will be 10 times the value after the 8.05 tragedy will be born.
Second: After the interest rate cut, funds gradually began to need a safe haven and a place to make money. The approval of BTC spot ETF and BTC option ETF means that this is the best and only choice for large funds.
Third: In the short term, altcoins will have a good rebound, but it is difficult for this round of altcoins to usher in a general rise like the previous round. When we enter the market at this time, we must see which track the big funds and hot funds are in. The real general rise or crazy rise may be after the end of the year.
As long as the market retraces and confirms the right trend, it will most likely be an opportunity to get on board this round.
But according to past experience, the National Day period is generally calm, because basically everyone goes out to play, so the market is closed.
The market conditions will generally be good after the National Day, lasting for 3-6 months, but not more than 6 months.
Enjoy your holidays and enjoy this bull market!
