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Macro News
1. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, announced at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 24th that the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate would be reduced. In the near future, the reserve ratio will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity, and it may be reduced by another 0.25-0.5 percentage points before the end of the year. At the same time, the central bank's policy interest rate will be reduced, the seven-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate will be reduced by 0.2 percentage points, and the loan market benchmark rate (LPR) will be guided to decline simultaneously. It is expected that this interest rate cut will lead to a 0.3 percentage point reduction in the MLF, and it is expected that the LPR and deposit interest rates will also decline by 0.2-0.25 percentage points, which will generally remain neutral to the bank's net interest margin.
2. Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that the CSRC will issue opinions on promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and six measures to promote mergers and acquisitions. It will highlight the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors, resolutely crack down on illegal and irregular behaviors such as financial fraud and market manipulation, and strive to implement more exemplary cases in representative litigation and advance compensation.
3. Li Yunze, director of the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, said that at present, specific reform and resolution plans have been formed in regions where high-risk institutions are concentrated, and they are being implemented in a steady and orderly manner according to the one-province-one-policy approach. With the gradual resolution and mitigation of the three major risks of real estate local debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions, financial risks are steadily converging, and the Financial Supervision Bureau will firmly maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks.
4. According to the notice of Guangzhou Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange on the time of night trading during the National Day in 2024, there will be no night trading on the evening of September 30, 2024 (Monday). The market will be closed from October 1, 2024 (Tuesday) to October 7, 2024 (Monday). On October 8, 2024 (Tuesday) from 08:55 to 09:00, all futures and options contracts will be auctioned, and night trading will resume that night.
Global futures market changes
1. Domestic commodity futures closed generally higher at night, with energy and chemical products performing strongly, with soda ash up 6.88%, No. 20 rubber up 5.97%, rubber up 5.21%, butadiene rubber up 4.61%, glass up 4.16%, PVC up 2.96%, and crude oil up 1.95%. Black series rose across the board, with iron ore up 5.14%, coke up 4.66%, coking coal up 4.58%, rebar up 3.14%, and hot-rolled coil up 3.09%. Agricultural products generally rose, with palm oil up 1.35%, cotton up 1.31%, soybean oil up 1.1%, white sugar up 1.06%, and cotton yarn up 1.04%. Basic metals closed higher across the board, with alumina up 3.16%, Shanghai zinc up 2.94%, stainless steel up 1.97%, Shanghai copper up 1.67%, Shanghai nickel up 1.33%, and Shanghai aluminum up 1%. Shanghai gold rose 0.55%, and Shanghai silver rose 4.22%.
2. International oil prices rose across the board, with the November contract of U.S. crude up 1.66% to $71.54 per barrel, and the December contract of Brent crude up 1.72% to $74.47 per barrel.
3. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.12% to $2,682.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.33% to $32.43 per ounce.
4. London base metals closed higher collectively, with LME copper futures up 2.85% at $9,821/ton, LME zinc futures up 4.35% at $3,010.5/ton, LME nickel futures up 1.15% at $16,735/ton, LME aluminum futures up 2.39% at $2,554/ton, LME tin futures up 1.24% at $32,695/ton and LME lead futures up 1.12% at $2,080.5/ton.
5. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures up 0.34% at 1042.75 cents per bushel; corn futures fell 0.42% to 411.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures fell 0.64% to 578.75 cents per bushel.
Black hot news
1. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, announced at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on September 24 that the interest rates of existing mortgages will be lowered and the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages will be unified, guiding commercial banks to lower the interest rates of existing mortgages to near the interest rates of newly issued mortgages, with an average reduction of about 0.5 percentage points. The minimum down payment ratios for first and second mortgages will be unified, and the minimum down payment ratio for second mortgages at the national level will be lowered from 25% to 15%. In addition, Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank will optimize the policy of affordable housing refinancing, and the proportion of central bank funds in the previously created 300 billion yuan affordable housing refinancing will be increased from 60% to 100%.
2. According to Poster News, banks have reported that they have noticed the policy of adjusting the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, but have not received any relevant adjustment notices. They will make unified adjustments when the time comes. At the same time, industry insiders said that if the new policy is released, it will take major banks one to several months to make adjustments, and they will be completed in almost the same time period.
3. Nan Fang Daily reported that some media reported that the interest rate adjustment of existing mortgage loans is expected to be implemented in Guangzhou this week. The reporter learned from people close to the regulator that the People's Bank of China has not yet issued a formal document on the reduction of existing mortgage loans, and the plan and adjustment method have yet to be clarified.
4. Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that the account group of Liu ×× (00112064) (account group number: B0002431) exceeded the limit of intraday opening transaction volume in the rebar futures (RB) 2501 contract on September 24, 2024, and reached the exchange's processing standards for the second time. The exchange decided to take regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions for relevant customers on the corresponding contracts for one month; the account group of Guo ×× (00210429) (account group number: B0005382) exceeded the limit of intraday opening transaction volume in the hot-rolled coil futures (HC) 2501 contract on September 24, 2024, and reached the exchange's processing standards for the first time. The exchange decided to take regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions for relevant customers on the corresponding contracts for 5 trading days.
5. According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production in August fell 6.5% year-on-year to 144.8 million tons. Among them, China's crude steel production in August was 77.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%.
6. According to Mysteel, the new round of Hesteel 75B ferrosilicon bidding in September has a quantity of 1,200 tons, and the previous round of bidding has a quantity of 2,501 tons. In addition, Baosteel bid for 3,800 tons of silicon manganese on September 24.
Hot news on agricultural products
1. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments announced that the minimum purchase price for wheat (grade three) produced in 2025 and 2026 will be 119 yuan per 50 kilograms, and the total purchase volume of wheat at the minimum purchase price in 2025 and 2026 will be limited to 37 million tons each year.
2. According to Wind data, as of the week of September 24, soybean oil port inventories were 1.067 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from 1.04 million tons in the week of September 17.
3. Data from the China Grain and Oil Business Network shows that as of the 38th weekend of 2024, domestic soybean meal inventories were 1.482 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from 1.419 million tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 4.43%.
4. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on strengthening the protection of cultivated land, improving the quality of cultivated land, and improving the balance between occupation and compensation. The opinion states that the main goal is to implement the cultivated land and permanent basic farmland protection tasks specified in the new round of national land space planning, with the national cultivated land reserve not less than 1.865 billion mu and the permanent basic farmland protection area not less than 1.546 billion mu.
5. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) expects Brazil's soybean exports in September to be 5.82 million tons, compared with a forecast of 5.83 million tons a week ago. Brazil's soybean meal exports in September are expected to be 1.97 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of 2.02 million tons. Brazil's corn exports in September are expected to be 6.68 million tons, compared with a forecast of 6.63 million tons a week ago.
6. According to the European Commission, as of September 22, the EU's palm oil imports for 2023/2024 were 580,000 tons, compared with 940,000 tons in the same period last year. Soybean meal imports were 4.09 million tons, compared with 3.66 million tons in the same period last year. Rapeseed imports were 1.16 million tons, compared with 870,000 tons in the same period last year. Soybean imports were 2.81 million tons, compared with 2.73 million tons in the same period last year.
Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News
1. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the trading on September 26, 2024 (i.e. the night trading on September 25), the transaction fee for closing the current position of the natural rubber futures RU2501 contract will be adjusted to 6 yuan/lot, and the transaction fee for closing the current position for hedging will be adjusted to 3 yuan/lot.
2. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that after trading on October 8, 2024 (Tuesday), from the closing settlement of the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price limit range of low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, the hedging transaction margin ratio will be adjusted to 8%, and the speculative transaction margin ratio will be adjusted to 9%.
3. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that after trading on October 8, 2024 (Tuesday), starting from the closing settlement of the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price limit range of fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and butadiene rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, the hedging margin ratio will be adjusted to 8%, and the speculative margin ratio will be adjusted to 9%.
4. OPEC believes that total investment in the oil industry will need to be $17.4 trillion by 2050, while the 2023 estimate is $14 trillion by 2045, predicting that oil demand will exceed 120 million barrels per day by 2050.
Metal Hot News
1. The CSPT group held a quarterly meeting on September 24 and finalized the TC/RC for copper concentrate spot purchases in the fourth quarter of 2024 at US$35/ton and 3.5 cents/pound, which was an increase from the previous quarter. The TC/RC for copper concentrate spot purchases in the third quarter of this year was US$30/ton and 3.0 cents/pound.
2. According to SMM's investigation, a red mud pipeline burst in a certain alumina plant in Shanxi Province. The plant has completed emergency repairs and has no impact on the alumina production of the plant for the time being.
3. Commerzbank raised its gold price forecast for the end of this year and the end of 2025 to $2,600 per ounce, and raised its silver price forecast for the end of this year to $31 per ounce, and expects that by the end of 2025, the trading price of silver will reach $33 per ounce.
4. Fed Governor Bowman said, "I will continue to be cautious about further rate cuts. The labor market has not shown a clear weakening trend. If the labor market weakens, it will support policy adjustments. The core inflation rate is still "uncomfortably" above the 2% target. It is believed that inflation risks outweigh labor market risks. It is difficult for the Fed to measure the impact of immigration on the labor market.
Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!
1. Soda ash rises from a low level, has the bottom been formed?
Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that on Tuesday, the bullish sentiment in the futures market was ignited, 67 main contracts were in the green, and soda ash closed up more than 6%. Let's first look at the fuse behind it. The central bank announced multiple positives, the liquidity of the financial market improved, and investor confidence also increased. Let's look at its own fundamentals. In terms of supply, production and inventory pressures still exist, but two production processes have entered the loss-making stage, and cost support is increasing. In terms of demand, the downstream glass consumption rate is slow, but market sentiment is improving, and attention is paid to the strength of stocking in the later period. On the whole, the improvement of the macro environment provides support for the market, and the rebound of soda ash may continue.
2. Iron ore recovered most of the losses from the previous week on Tuesday. Can the market continue to reverse in the future?
Jianxin Futures analysis pointed out that on September 24, under the strong stimulus of policy expectations, iron ore prices rebounded significantly, recovering most of the decline in the previous week. Fundamentally, the downstream steel demand turned around and fell last week, the output of molten iron continued to increase slightly, and the pace of steel mills' resumption of production was slow. In terms of supply, the shipment volume has fallen, and the port arrival volume has turned around and rebounded. It is expected that the port arrival volume will continue to increase again in the near future. At the same time, the mine safety inspection has ended, and domestic mineral production has also gradually increased, and the supply of iron ore remains in a relatively loose state. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported ore in 45 ports has fallen slightly recently, but it is still at the highest level in the same period in history. Steel mills are more cautious in replenishing inventory before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and there is still room for replenishment before the National Day holiday. Overall, under the expectation of strong policy stimulus, coupled with the demand for replenishment before the National Day holiday, the price of ore is expected to continue to rebound and run strongly in the short term. Whether this trend can continue to form a reversal of the market depends on the actual recovery of terminal demand.
Overview of recent important futures data and events
1. At 09:00 on September 25, the People's Bank of China conducted MLF operations. Previously, the People's Bank of China announced on September 18 that in order to hedge the impact of factors such as the expiration of MLF and open market reverse repurchases and maintain reasonable liquidity in the banking system, it conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 568.2 billion yuan in the open market on that day, with an operating interest rate of 1.7%. The MLF that expired on that day will be renewed on September 25.
2. September 25th (tbd), ITS/AmSpec/SGS announced Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 25. Previously, ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20 were 953,986 tons, an increase of 10.08% from 866,641 tons exported in the same period last month.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data