The current crypto market is in the mid-to-late stage of the bull market, and the volatility has increased significantly. This is not only the result of multiple factors inside and outside the market, but also a complex situation that investors must deal with in the future. Combined with the recent market performance, we will analyze it from both negative and positive aspects to help everyone grasp the opportunities and risks that may arise in the market in the future.

1. Negative factors: recession concerns and the decoupling of the U.S. dollar price from the fiat currency

1. Fed rate cuts and recession expectations

The recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has stimulated the market in the short term, but it has also raised investors' concerns about a recession. We have used the term "last gasp" to describe this short-term rebound in US stocks: even though stocks rose the day after the rate cut, market sentiment remained cautious. More importantly, the Fed also lowered its long-term expectations for the economy, which many investors have not noticed.

After the market rebounded, I suggested that US stock investors reduce their holdings to 70%. At that time, many people disagreed with my suggestion. However, the record highs of gold are precisely the market's risk aversion signal for the economic recession. In the gold market, we can see that investors are paying more attention to changes in economic fundamentals. Therefore, those who laughed at me can now be silent. The shadow of economic recession has not dissipated, but has become a huge potential risk in the market.

2. Shallow trading pool and fund decoupling

Recently, the phenomenon of U price decoupling from legal currency has become increasingly obvious in the market, indicating that there is no new capital entering in large quantities, and some capital has even overflowed the market. This lack of capital has led to increased volatility in Bitcoin, and one of the reasons is the lack of depth in the trading pool. The reduced liquidity of Bitcoin has made the price more sensitive when market sentiment fluctuates. Analysis data shows that the trading performance in the Asian session is stronger than that in the US session, but the U price is still falling, which shows that funds are fighting each other within the market, rather than new funds entering the market.

If the market continues this trend next week, or even moves sideways in the next two weeks due to unexpected events, we may see a "golden pit" at the close of the mid-term trading in the bull market. Judging from the net inflow of Bitcoin into exchange wallets, there is a possibility of further selling pressure in the market in the short term, and investors should be prepared to deal with it.

2. Positive factors: Institutional entry and leverage game

1. BlackRock Spot ETF Options

Although there are concerns about recession in the short term, we cannot ignore some good news, especially the approval of BlackRock's spot ETF options. This move means that institutional investors on Wall Street will officially enter the crypto market, bringing more liquidity and market depth. In the future, institutional funds will compete with the original funds in the crypto market, which will greatly change the trading structure of the market.

The introduction of options will deepen the market's trading pool, and the participation of institutions will not only enhance market liquidity but also increase volatility. With the addition of various large hedge funds and leveraged trading tools, the market will become more complex. Investors need to be aware that future market trends may be very different from now.

2. Increase volatility and interest game

As liquidity increases, the volatility of the market will further increase. Wall Street has its own interests, and the natives of the crypto market also have their own unique trading models. In the future market, the game between Wall Street and the natives will become the new normal. Whoever can control the market can influence the future trend. It is particularly important for investors to understand this. With the entry of Wall Street institutions, every large fluctuation may be dubbed as a "Wall Street pin". Both institutions and natives are trying to tame the market through the advantages of funds and strategies.

Overall, the market at the end of the mid-term bull market is in a critical stage of interweaving bad and good news. The short-term rebound brought about by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts masks the potential risk of economic recession, while the unmooring of funds in the market and the lack of depth in trading pools further exacerbates volatility. At the same time, the approval of BlackRock spot ETF options indicates that more institutional funds are about to enter the market, and the depth and volatility of the market will increase significantly in the future. Faced with this situation, investors should pay more attention to risk management. Bringing a good stop loss and avoiding blind positions has become a key strategy to deal with highly volatile markets. The future market will be more unpredictable, and stop-loss and flexible position adjustment are the best ways to deal with market turbulence. The market will eventually return to rationality, but in the process, we need to face fluctuations calmly and be more cautious. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BNB金鏟子 #贝莱德以太坊ETF #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥