Personal expectations of market fluctuations brought about by tonight's interest rate meeting (only personal expectations, not for trading reference)
At present, the highest probability of the market is still a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
According to previous management, Nick's remarks during the Fed's silent period often guide market expectations on behalf of the Fed, so it can be said that the market expects the first 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Impact:
A 50 basis point interest rate cut is in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market #BTC☀ sentiment rises, and then triggers a Sell the news decline. The decline may be large, but the short-term correction of the risk market is inevitable. Then it will rebound again, and the rebound time is currently difficult to predict.
A 25 basis point interest rate cut is not in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market BTC directly fell, which is not in line with expectations. Combined with the market decline, the market may have greater doubts about the subsequent US economy. The market needs to adjust its sentiment and the Fed will start to digest the rebound after sorting out expectations.
Note:
This is a preliminary expectation of the interest rate meeting results, but there are still many important factors affecting this interest rate meeting.
Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting, the release of the Fed's third dot plot. How Powell explains the interest rate results, and the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut plan brought about by the dot plot will have a great impact on the short-term market trend.
After the first interest rate cut, the main topic of macro market sentiment is the overall magnitude, speed and frequency of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year.
At the same time, more economic data of all sizes after the interest rate cut may trigger the market's unexpected associations, and see how the Fed balances market expectations.
