[Market Warning] Interest rate cuts are changing! The Fed may make a big move. Is Bitcoin out of all the positives on Thursday? That man has taken action! The 100% winning Ethereum whale is back. Will he sell or add to his position this time? Where will Pepe take profit? Tru and BNB analysis. Trump was attacked, the currency circle crashed, can we buy at the bottom?

Something big has happened to my family, and there are changes in the interest rate cut. Will Bitcoin start to plummet on Thursday after all the good news is exhausted?

That man finally made his move! The invincible Ethereum whale has returned to the arena after half a year. Will he increase his position or run away this time?

Let’s follow Shuqin to find out what important news there is about Tru, Pepe and WIF.

The first one is a sudden disaster. Trump was attacked yesterday, which caused a flash crash in the cryptocurrency circle. But I don’t think there is any need to worry. After all, Trump is fine, the market will slowly recover, and even the probability of his election will increase.

Okay, let’s analyze the logic behind the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market this week.

Although the market crashed unexpectedly due to Trump's recent announcement, the market is likely to regard the interest rate cut at 2 a.m. on Thursday as a positive event. The price of the currency soared before the interest rate cut meeting, from 52,000 to more than 60,000. According to this logic, Bitcoin will continue to rise in the next few days, and then when the interest rate cut is announced in the early hours of Thursday morning, the good news will be exhausted, and a small correction will begin.

However, the above is normal, because there is a very big uncertainty this time, that is, whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 or 50 basis points. Please see the picture.

The two probabilities are almost 55-50, which is very rare that the result cannot be determined in the week of the rate cut. The reason is that Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee and former New York Fed Chairman Dudley and others expressed support for two rate cuts, which made the originally slim chance of 50 basis points return to the public eye. Just before the publication of this article, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut soared again to 68%!

Therefore, if the interest rate is really cut by 25 basis points, it will definitely be the end of the good news, and it may even disappoint people. However, if the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it will set the tone for loosening the money supply, which is a double interest rate cut. Therefore, a soft landing of the US economy can be said to be almost certain, and the cryptocurrency market will start a bullish journey due to the continuous loosening of money supply in the next year. If there is no accident, it will definitely reach 150,000 US dollars by next year!

After analyzing the major events of this week, let’s take a look at the trend of Bitcoin. I see several unusual signals now.

Judging from the macro-trend, Bitcoin used to fall to lower lows and lower highs, but this month Bitcoin stopped falling after falling to 52,000, and did not fall to a lower low. So as long as it can create a higher high this time, that is, above 66,000, then I can tell you that the bear market in the currency circle is over, and the bull market is really here!

At that time, the cup-handle pattern at the weekly level that we have repeatedly mentioned before will be activated, and its increase will reach twice the belly of the cup, which is about 120,000 or 130,000, which is very bullish.

As for the short term, we analyzed it in the last issue. Previously, Bitcoin also had lower lows and lower highs, but now the lows are getting higher and the highs are also getting higher. It has risen from 58,000 that we talked about in the last issue to more than 60,000. Although yesterday's Trump incident caused Bitcoin to crash, as long as Bitcoin does not fall below the previous low of 57,500 and create a lower low, I think this upward trend will still be maintained.

So you really need to pay attention to these key points.

In addition, Ethereum, which has been silent for a long time, recently received two very important news.

The first one is that the long-silent 100% winning rate Ethereum Whale finally started to take action after half a year.

In the past two weeks, he has added more than 20,000 Ethereums, and currently holds a total of 85,000 Ethereums. This person sold all the way to escape the top when everyone was most excited about the high point of 3,000 or 4,000 at the beginning of the year. He is really good at it.

Now that it has returned to the market at more than 2,000, I think this is a bullish signal, so we can follow the market maker and buy on dips. After all, Bitcoin’s rise from 60,000 to its previous high is a 20% increase, and Ethereum’s rise from 2,200 to 4,000 has a 70% room for recovery!

Another important news about Ethereum is the Prague upgrade at the end of the year. This upgrade will be carried out in two parts, that is, two pull-ups. The first upgrade will be in the first quarter of next year, and Ethereum usually starts to rise sharply two months before the upgrade, and each time it ends with a doubling.

So I think it will be around 4,000 in November, and then gradually rise to 8,000 in the two months of the upgrade. So whether it is the compensatory rise to 4,000 as just mentioned or the Prague upgrade that will take off at the end of the year, Ethereum is very worthy of your long-term layout.

In addition, I think that as the cryptocurrency market recovers, the copycat season may come back at any time. After all, mainstream tracks such as AI, RWA and Defi have already exploded, and now only meme coins such as Pepe and WIF are quietly dormant.

I think Pepe has formed a double bottom which is still very solid. This wave is expected to fluctuate and rise to around 0.97.

As the leading coin of Solana, WIF was implicated in the recent selling pressure of FTX. As Sol weakened, WIF has also been weakening recently. In comparison, Pepe and Floki have greater potential.

In addition, the K-line of BNB that we talked about in the last issue is also very beautiful. It should rise to around 600 this time. We can make up for any pullbacks. Then, on the morning of September 26, we will escape the top after the new Hamster coin issuance, and then take it back after a few days of pullback. We should be able to make a lot of money in this wave.

The Tru that we planned before is even more awesome. It reached as high as 0.12 this week. Now I think we can buy it back if it falls back to around 0.095 and 0.1. It has already fallen back by 20%, which is equivalent to 20% off.

In fact, he and OM Benqin had let everyone buy at the bottom a long time ago, so this wave of outbreak was also expected.

If you want to follow my lead, don't forget to come and have a look. I will show you how to do it in real time every day.

Okay, let’s continue.

Now there are signs that Wall Street funds are returning to the market again. In the five trading days last week, there were net inflows on four days. This shows that these short-term speculators have high hopes for the cryptocurrency market to rise in October, so they began to plan two weeks in advance.

Some smart money addresses that I follow are also secretly hoarding coins.

For example, this whale bought coins on Binance for five consecutive days and transferred them to his own cold wallet. His total holdings have now reached 10,000 coins, worth US$600 million.

In addition, the Ethereum whales we talked about earlier are also returning to the market. So many smart money with assets worth over 100 million are buying it, which shows that this is not a coincidence.

However, in the short term, we still need to pay attention to the interest rate cut in the early morning of September 18th. It is possible that the good news will be exhausted and there will be a correction. But Shuqin still has hope, because the probability of an unexpected 50 basis point cut is really high!