How much will the Fed cut interest rates? 50 and 25 basis points have been mentioned many times. Now is the Fed's silent period. We can only wait until the 19th to get news directly from the Fed, or wait and see whether Nick will come out to explain. Even today, I see that the information channels in the United States are very fragmented. Goldman Sachs believes that the interest rate will only be cut by 25, BlackRock believes that the Fed's first interest rate cut will not be too high, and CME and Polymarket users believe that the probability of 50 is greater, and there is even Elizabeth Warren's proposal of 75 basis points.
The market will have large fluctuations because of differences. As the saying goes, the more initial interest rate cuts the better in the long run, but from the recent trend, 25 basis points may be the most stable choice.
Going back to the BTC data, we can see that in addition to the short-term investors who bought in the past week, the earlier investors are still watching the show and have not participated in the turnover. The current chips are still concentrated towards US$56,500 to US$61,000. After a few more washes, this position is likely to become a new support position.