Hey, guys.
Today is Monday, so it's time for a weekly review of the instrument.
Last week I wrote that the volume of liquidations when the price was rising was 8 times higher than when it was falling, and that it would be easy for buyers to accelerate the price. I also considered buying at the breakdown of the key zone of 56K. As a matter of fact, we saw first a throw into the 58K zone where the price stood for a while and then boom and we are already at 60K. In fact, this trade was quite easy to read and had a good r/r, if we want to make money on trading, we have no right to miss such trades.
On the weekend the price reached 60.6K and after trying to consolidate above 60K we saw the market smile and the price went to test the 58K support. At around 60K I reduced my risk a bit.
What I am doing, I still have a part of the position in the market, and if the price goes higher it is good, if not, I took some money out of the market and I will not be upset. Stop is still below 55.5K.
Key supports are 57.5K and 55K zone.
In onchain metrics there was an outflow from exchanges, reserves on exchanges are also low.
Open interest in futures contracts decreased when reaching 60K, which tells us about partial unloading of buyers. Perhaps the price will reach the 61-61.5K zone where the downtrend is located, and as long as the price has not broken it, we cannot say that we are back in the uptrend.
This week the main event is the Fed interest rate decision, and it is impossible to make any predictions on how the price will behave. At the moment, the probabilities of a rate cut have shifted to a double cut of 60% and 40% towards a 25 basis points rate cut. The double reduction will mean that the Fed recognizes the problems in the economy, and it is hard to say how the market will react to it. It is worth remembering that after the last two Fed meetings the market was falling, whether it will be the same this time or vice versa, we will see.
Stay tuned.
