"Abandon illusions, prepare for struggle" clarifies the three paths of globalization and explores whether the third hot war is likely to break out?
Frontier: I hesitated for a long time before writing this article, because it involves a lot of sensitive content. I don’t know if it will be restricted after it is published, so publishing this article is a bit like committing suicide. And I believe that the content in it may not be of interest to most people, and it may even subvert many people’s views and even cause a lot of trouble, but there are some things that I really have to say.
Abandon illusions and prepare for struggle. This was a slogan put forward by a former teacher in the form of a title in an article in 1949. Although many of us think that war is far away from us today, it does not mean that the crisis is not around us.
Under the current global situation, the possibility of a third hot war breaking out is low, because neither side of the main contradiction wants to engage in a hot war. However, the war of game has evolved from traditional hot wars to technology, economy and even biology, climate, etc. This article only discusses economic issues.
At the same time, the views expounded in this article also explain why major Eastern powers have recently frequently invested in developing African countries.
The world is currently on the brink of the disintegration of the third globalization, and both sides are playing a game. We will not comment here on whether the third globalization will disintegrate or become more stable.
Speaking of the third globalization, let's talk about the first two globalizations:
The first globalization:
The time span is from the mid-19th century to the early 20th century, that is, to the beginning of World War I. This period can be called "colonial economic globalization". Its core is the global business layout based on the capital derived from the colonial system, which derived from the slave trade and other commodity economic trade, and brought about the development of the first industrial revolution. This globalization is centered on Europe.
The second globalization:
The period from World War I to the end of World War II can be called the "globalization of industrial capital". Both World War I and World War II were caused by conflicts in local areas due to resource issues. Wars were triggered by the lack of resources and the fight for resources. It was also the first global industrial revolution that created a large shortage of resources. This globalization is centered on the entire West.
The third globalization:
The period from the early 2000s to the global financial crisis in 2008 can be called the "globalization of financial capital". I won't elaborate on this aspect because everyone has experienced it and should understand why. This globalization is still centered on the West, mainly the United States.
Globalization or the evolution of Western capitalist development stages or contradictions
The economic development route mentioned in our current mainstream Western economics is basically divided into: primitive capital accumulation → industrial capital accumulation → industrial capital expansion → financial capital → financial capital expansion.
The United States is currently in the stage of financial capital expansion, while we, as a large Eastern country, are still in the process of industrial capital accumulation to expansion.
In the final stage of each globalization, irreconcilable contradictions will erupt due to core competition, and this contradiction comes not only from the outside but also from the inside.
Take the globalization of industrial capital as an example. At that stage, class differentiation caused by industry broke out within industrial capital-rich countries, leading to the gap between the rich and the poor and increased social contradictions. At the same time, the shortage of core production materials in industrial capital catalyzed the escalation of internal contradictions.
Externally, the severe shortage of raw materials in globalization has caused conflicts and frictions between different economies, ultimately triggering a hot war.
Although war is cruel, it actually resolves domestic and external conflicts. This is why at every stage of the world, there are interest groups that constantly catalyze the occurrence of wars, just to transfer their own crises and eliminate crises through war. (This topic is more complicated and sensitive. Those who are interested can check the information themselves.)
The first two globalizations led to hot wars in the world, which in turn catalyzed the change of new globalization routes. However, we found that the third globalization did not experience a hot war, and no war broke out due to core competitiveness from the second globalization to the third globalization.
How capital transfers contradictions:
The internal contradictions that capitalist countries encountered in their development, such as class solidification, the widening gap between the rich and the poor, employment problems, production capacity problems, etc., have found a way to transfer these contradictions after the second globalization.
One thing to note here is that war is a way to resolve internal and external conflicts, but war is not the only way to resolve conflicts.
In the second globalization, that is, the process of industrial capital globalization, capital-developed countries tried to transfer their low-tech, high-repetitive industries to late-developing countries in the later stage, and resolve internal and external contradictions and then solve their own crises. Therefore, in a fundamental sense, the three hot wars did not break out not because people love peace, but because the cost of war is high, and new approaches can better solve the problem.
There are two key words here, first-developed countries and late-developed countries, which literally means first developed and then developed. We can also understand it as the frontier countries and economies that have always dominated globalization.
For example, the United States and many European countries are first-mover countries in the first and second globalizations, while we, a large country in the East, are considered latecomers, but we are constantly catching up and surpassing them. However, there are still many latecomer countries in the world, such as Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East, West Asia, etc.
However, the second round of globalization encountered bottlenecks, internal conflicts and external competition. Many developed countries chose to transfer some of their low-base and highly repetitive industries overseas. There are many ways to do this, the most common of which are to launch local wars or export through economic support.
The most typical example is that during the Korean War, Japan and South Korea accepted industrial technology and industry transfer from the United States and European countries, so they experienced rapid economic growth after their defeat, especially in industry and technology.
During the same period, we received support from the former Soviet Union, and the Northeastern industrial zone took off.
But the biggest difference is that Japan and South Korea gave up their national sovereignty, embraced the free market economy, and small government management, while we chose to maintain our sovereignty, which eventually led to the breakup of the former Soviet Union during the industrial transfer and also led to our economic crisis for a period of time. (There are many historical sensitive issues here, so I won’t go into details here)
There are many similar cases of industrial transfer. Those who are interested can look up the information themselves.
Benefits of transferring conflicts:
Many people may not understand that it is a good thing for developed countries to transfer industries to developing countries. Yes, it is a good thing for developing countries in the short term, but it is not the case in the long run.
After the developed country transfers its assets, you only have the right to use the assets. The sovereignty is not in your hands, and the core technology is not in your hands. The transferred industries are in your country, using a lower-cost labor force in your country than in the developed country, and consuming raw materials with lower costs than in the developed country.
The cost of labor and raw materials is reduced, and product prices are also reduced. The goods produced are basically directed to be imported into developed countries, so the costs in certain areas of developed countries are greatly reduced.
As commodity prices fall, inflation decreases, assets appreciate, and people's incomes increase, their purchasing power increases, which naturally reduces internal class contradictions. Externally, because of the method of asset transfer, key resources have actually been obtained and can be further eroded, basically achieving an effect that war cannot achieve, so internal and external contradictions are basically resolved.
Industrial transfer is the core reason why the third hot war has not started, and the contradictions have been resolved in another way.
The Third Globalization: Globalization of Financial Capital
The data we can find shows that the third globalization appeared during the financial crisis in 2008. In fact, since the Internet bubble in 2000, the globalization of financial capital has gradually taken shape and grown stronger.
As we said above, the development path of capitalist countries is that after the expansion of industrial capital, the next step is the development and expansion of financial capital. Here, the United States has always been at the forefront, and European countries are following closely behind.
After years of development, the United States has reached the stage where it needs to expand its financial capital. Without expansion, liquidity will be restricted, and market bubbles will become bigger and bigger, so greater expansion will be needed to provide sufficient liquidity.
Europe was an early region to follow in the footsteps of the United States. Currently, 50% of financial derivatives in Europe are based on U.S. financial products as related indexes. Therefore, Europe can basically be regarded as a place for development after the expansion of the United States.
But this is far from enough at the moment. The United States needs more places to accept the US dollar financial model or financial market. Everyone knows where exactly.
However, facing this third globalization, many people and many countries do not recognize it. Why? The core reason is the sequelae of liquidity being withdrawn.
The third round of globalization has not yet fully taken shape, but if it does, all global funds and capital will circulate through the United States. When the economic environment is good, everyone will prosper, but when the economic environment is bad, the United States will feel the crisis and will need to withdraw liquidity to save itself.
Therefore, the biggest drawback of the third globalization is that the globalization of financial capital must be driven mainly by financial capital countries to drive global capital liquidity. This action is actually the world providing liquidity to allow US dollar capital to profit from it. The capital that has made the profit can take the opportunity to target certain countries and obtain their core assets.
Compared with a hot war, measures taken through financial and economic means are more bloodless, but the effects achieved are more cruel than war.
Here is a simple example. The current situation in Japan and South Korea is the most typical example. Japan is relatively good. The Bank of Japan tried to resist on its own, but it was difficult. When Yellen went to Japan, the Japanese Prime Minister directly gave up re-election. He no longer wanted to take the blame and had lost hope for the future.
Is it safe not to join?
Of course, there are countries that have not surrendered like Japan, and there are also many countries that have not joined the globalization of financial capital, but don't think that this is safe.
Obviously, this is not safe because capital is mobile and the state can restrict it, but cannot completely cut off the flow of capital, so it only needs to drive the capital flow.
Regional conflicts can be created here, such as proxy wars. Everyone understands that local proxy wars can make local capital in some areas nervous and panic. In the subconscious of capital, after panic and tension, funds will naturally flow back to the United States, because to date, US dollar assets are still the safest assets in the subconscious of most people.
in conclusion:
The possibility of a third hot war is indeed very small, because the two countries, which are the main sources of contradiction, are currently facing a critical stage. If a hot war is launched, they will be stuck in the game and have no way out. However, given the current global environment, it is better to divide and compete with each other rather than fight to the death.
However, the probability of a third hot war is small, but we are already in a more dangerous and involved game, which is comparable to the third hot war, except that what we feel most directly is not physical, but mental and environmental.
Ending:
Looking back at what we said at the beginning, the great Eastern country is also facing a stage of industrial capital expansion and needs to transfer its own crisis. Therefore, it has recently frequently shown goodwill to some developing countries and even supported them. Many people do not understand this, but if you finish reading this article, I believe you should understand the benefits of doing so.
As for the future path, whether to continue to use Western economics to develop financial economics, I think it is difficult to say for the time being. But I want to tell you that although our lives are not in danger, the current game does concern our future life and economy, so don’t let your guard down too much.
This article involves a lot of sensitive content, so it is difficult to say more. Moreover, this article may cause me to limit the flow of traffic. If you can read it, then read it. If not, I may have to remove it from the shelves.