#BTC☀ Market Interpretation: Will the third breakthrough tonight be successful? ? If the breakthrough fails, the market will fall below the interest rate meeting next week, and the support below may face a greater pressure test!
As of today, BTC has completed two daily resistance breakthrough tests this week, both ended in failure. We look forward to the third test of resistance tonight.
If the breakthrough fails, the bulls' sentiment may be exhausted after three attempts. At the same time, coupled with the sensitive period of next week's interest rate meeting, the market may continue to fluctuate and fall.
Once the interest rate cut is implemented, the market may even fall faster, and the daily/weekly support below may face greater pressure.
At present, the daily lower track interval is shrinking at an accelerated rate. Let's take a look at the point changes:
The daily resistance moves down to 58,100, which is also the current key resistance level. As the resistance level moves down, if the breakthrough fails again, the bulls will inevitably be sluggish in the short term.
The daily MA7 56,800 serves as a short-term retracement support. This support formed a perfect rebound during the decline on the 11th and serves as an effective reference.
Daily/weekly lines are around 53,500, and the daily and weekly double-level support will form a strong support level in the short term. As a strong support for a sharp decline, it is expected that this support may test pressure before and after next week's interest rate meeting.
The current daily lower track range of 53,500-58,100 has been continuously compressed this week and currently remains in the 4,600 point range.
RSI: Index 50, remains the same value as yesterday, sentiment changes little, center value.
CME BTC futures, the current futures price maintains a positive premium of 200 points with the spot price. The handover this week has been completed in the afternoon, and the bullish force is strong.
in conclusion:
The big premise is that if#USstockscontinues to rise tonight, BTC will get a third chance to test the resistance level.
If the breakthrough fails and there is a cooling-off period on Sunday, the decline in bullish sentiment will be more serious next week, especially before the interest rate meeting on the 18th of next week, the entire risk market should remain relatively cautious.
The range has been compressed, combined with the cautious sentiment before next week's interest rate meeting, prices have fluctuated and fallen. After the interest rate cut is implemented, there is a high possibility of a downward breakthrough, superimposed with an outbreak after the range compression.
As for the situation after the interest rate cut, I personally expect that the interest rate cut will lead to a downward breakthrough, and then maintain a volatile and cautious attitude. Once the market is relatively stable after the interest rate cut, the market will continue to fluctuate and rebound.
As I expected, there are two things to note:
1. Next week's retail data cannot be bad. If the data is bad, it may be combined with the slowdown in CPI to trigger a recession, making next week's interest rate meeting more sensitive.
2. The interest rate meeting is not the focus. The focus is on the dot plot of this interest rate meeting for the Fed's future rate cut rhythm or rate cut speed. Currently, the rate cut is 100 points. At the same time, after the rate cut, the economic data cannot have bad data, otherwise it will be magnified by the market and cause a decline in sentiment.
Without further ado, let's see tonight's performance. Judging from the current situation, the possibility of a successful breakthrough is not great, but let's still wait optimistically.
PS: My pending order is empty and still not received! Keep waiting.
#BTC☀ $BTC