Is the bull market over?
First of all, we need to judge whether the bull market is over or in the adjustment stage.
First, we see the historical adjustment stages, one is May-September 2023, and the other is May-August 2021. The adjustment months are 6 months and 4 months, of which 3 months are closed with negative.
Secondly, we look at the historical bull market peak and bear market adjustment months, such as 2018 and 2022, which are basically 15 months, and the months of closing with negative are as high as 10 months.
Combined with the big market, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future, so the probability of a direct bear market is very low, unless the interest rate cut is accompanied by an economic recession, the negative impact of the economic recession is greater, and it directly becomes an economic depression.
Of course, you can say that this bull market adjustment is probably the most painful one in history. Whether it is the number of times of closing with negatives 4 times or the duration of 7 months, the extent of the decline of other currencies except Bitcoin is basically no different from experiencing a bear market. However, for Bitcoin, we still have to judge when we see the top. Now is the adjustment period rather than the bear market.
Secondly, look at the waves. If we have completed five waves now, this is how to draw them.
The problem is that there are three necessary conditions for the wave theory. The adjustment end point of wave 2 cannot be lower than the starting point of wave 1, the adjustment of wave 4 cannot be lower than the high point of wave 3, and wave 3 cannot be the shortest. Here, wave 3 is obviously the shortest, which is not in line with reality.
Therefore, our real main rising wave 3 should start from 28,000 US dollars to 70,000 US dollars, which is the third wave. Therefore, it is almost certain that we are in the fourth wave of the adjustment wave. We are still short of the fifth wave. Whether it is the interest rate cut at the macroeconomic level or the ETF passed this year, the bull market should not be too "faceless".
