In the past 24 hours, although the price of BTC has risen, there is actually no increase in volume. This shows that the rise over the weekend was caused by small-scale buying. On Monday, US stock futures opened and showed an upward trend, which shows that investor sentiment is gradually warming up. After the opening of the evening, the three major stock indexes all rose. Although they have not yet fully recovered the decline on Friday, they have indeed eased in terms of sentiment.
As we have been emphasizing since Friday, the US economy is not in recession at present. So, will the market be willing to believe that interest rate cuts must be bad news? Of course, it is too early to draw a conclusion now, even if it is not too late to wait until the interest rate cut is announced.
Today, we also sorted out the data of the US election years in the past 50 years. Although the increase in September and October has not been very large, as long as there is no recession, at least in September and October of the election year, the average increase is positive. Now that the S&P is still in a downtrend after entering September, the recession issue has become the most entangled point in the current market. If you want to say that there is a recession, there is indeed no conclusive evidence. If you say there will be no recession, no one can guarantee it, after all, even Buffett has chosen to leave.
From the data point of view, it also follows the view that has always been held. Even if the price drops, long-term investors cannot surrender their BTC. The only possibility for long-term investors to surrender is price increase. From the historical data of BTC, we can know that only when the price rises, long-term investors will gradually leave the market. After all, most of the current long-term holders are high-net-worth investors.
In the past 24 hours, BTC turnover is still mainly provided by short-term holders, especially investors who bought the bottom last Friday, and there has been a large number of exits today. Secondly, short-term investors with holding prices below $60,000 have also experienced a certain degree of turnover. On the contrary, BTC between $64,000 and $69,000, which we no longer have much hope for, has only experienced a very small number of exits.