Crazy drop last night! Why did it fall when the non-agricultural data was good?
Why did the non-agricultural data last night look good, but the US stocks and BTC were falling? To be honest, I looked for a lot of channels and information, and spent a lot of time to find it, but I can say something more intuitive. It's not just the US stocks and BTC that fell, but the US bonds also fell across the board, with the one-year, two-year, and three-year US bonds falling by more than 2%.
The US dollar index is rising, and gold and oil are falling. Seeing these data, my direct feeling is two words "safe haven". The decline of US bonds shows that a large amount of funds have begun to enter US bonds. From this perspective, investors should be extremely panicked about the interest rate cut, and they should think that the interest rate cut is the key to open the risk market to fall.
Therefore, funds have withdrawn from US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even gold, and directly bought US bonds with higher value preservation. The current return can still be maintained at more than 3.5%, and the one-year period can still have a return of 4%. Why are users so pessimistic?
The first is that interest rate cuts are indeed accompanied by the decline of risk markets in the history of the United States. Therefore, investors no longer try to distinguish between defensive and last-ditch efforts. As long as the probability of a rate cut increases, they will run. It is hard to say that this is wrong, but often in the early stages of a rate cut, if the economy does not decline, the risk market can still perform well.
The second is that Nvidia's performance has made investors as a whole doubtful about their faith in AI. It is very likely that they are not just killing high valuations, but panic. After all, AI has been rising for too long as a defensive asset. Therefore, although Nvidia's financial report is still good this time, it is difficult to escape the market's high expectations.