Market Analysis
As expected, BTC rose to around 58,500 and then stabilized overnight. After the news came out yesterday morning, it began to fall all the way. The news had a great impact on China. No one wanted to be the last person to escape the cage.
It has fallen all the way from 58200 to 55600 after breaking through the support of 57700, with a maximum drop of 2600 dollars. The support below the daily line is still at 51490, but bulls don’t need to be too pessimistic. Even if it falls to 51490, it will take time, not all at once. And there are supply and demand orders around 55600.
The buying at the bottom is still very strong. Today's non-agricultural data will also determine whether there will be a rate cut on the 18th. If there is a rate cut, will it be 25 or 50 basis points? Therefore, the buying at the bottom is very strong. You can bet on the bulls' counterattack today.
So I personally think that today's long position is very worthwhile. I personally think that BTC can be long at 56000, increase the position at 55600, and stop loss at 55300.
Key information that needs attention in the near future!
Non-farm payrolls: Released on September 6, stronger-than-expected data could push up the dollar and weaken expectations of rate cuts
CPI Price Index: released on September 11, if the data continues to fall, it will support a rate cut in September
Federal Reserve decision: Announced on September 19, the market estimates that there is a high probability of a 25% rate cut, but a rate cut may not immediately push up cryptocurrencies
On the eve of Friday's heavyweight non-farm report, employment data fell far short of expectations, with private employment hitting a new low since 2021. On Wednesday, August manufacturing data shrank for the fifth consecutive month, and the data showed that expectations of a US recession have worsened.
Now we are waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, to see whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. As for the fundamentals, the news in the short term is more about coordinating transactions. If the market moves upwards, it will be a slow bull market, and all the news will be positive. If the market moves downwards, both the positive and negative news will be negative.
Logic in brief:
Interest rate cuts and the economy: When the economy is not good, interest rates are cut, and the extent of the interest rate cut reflects economic problems and the intensity of monetary easing
Market reaction: If the economic problems are big, the market will fall first; if the problems are small and the interest rate cuts are small, the market reaction will be limited, but the sentiment will be bearish.
The contradiction of interest rate cuts: The initial market contradiction is that there is a fear that a large interest rate cut would indicate a serious problem, while there is also a fear that a small interest rate cut would not solve the problem.
Opportunities lie in the follow-up: The first interest rate cut is not a good opportunity, and we need to observe the second and third times. After the third time, funds will be truly injected, risks will be reduced, and the economy may turn around.
Difficulty in short-term operations: The current market is volatile and operations are difficult. It is recommended to remain patient and wait for clearer signals.
Summary: Be patient, wait for clear opportunities brought by subsequent interest rate cuts, and avoid short-term high-risk operations.
Watch out for whale traps!
The cryptocurrency world is unpredictable, and there is a cunning strategy that can catch traders off guard: the whale trap. Here’s how it works:
Big Sell-off: Smart whales sell off a large amount of assets, causing panic in the market. Panic begins to spread, and small investors start to sell frantically.
Market crash: Panic spreads and selling increases, triggering a market crash. Prices plummet and the market becomes chaotic.
Whales Return: Just when prices hit rock bottom, whales come back and snap up assets at bargain prices. While others are still recovering, they make a killing.
This is typical crypto behavior - emotions run high, decisions are made quickly, and the risk is huge. Stay alert and don't let whales take away your gains!
