Today, Bitcoin fell sharply, from 58,000 to 55,606, and now it has closed at around 56,300, a drop of 4%. Why did it fall? Or the US stock market fell. Today, the US stock market fell by about 2%-3%, the Nasdaq fell by 3.2%, and the S&P 500 fell by 2.1%. At present, Bitcoin has almost fallen when the US stock market fell, and it is currently unable to break out of the independent market.
So if you want to get a good market, you still have to study the market of US stocks. At present, whether it is Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow Jones, they are all in the stage of hitting new highs. It may take some time, but the resistance is not great. It should break through in the next wave, and after the breakthrough, it may start a new round of surge.
So why is the cryptocurrency market currently so greatly affected by the U.S. stock market? In fact, we have analyzed this before. Institutions have come in, as have U.S. ETFs, etc., so it is normal that the performance is similar to that of the U.S. stock market.
Why does the halving of BTC have little impact on the market?
Judging from the impact of Bitcoin halving on prices, the performance after the 2024 halving is the worst since the birth of BTC. Currently in September 24, the BTC transaction price is about 11% lower than the price of $63,800 on April 20, 2024, the day of the halving. After 150 days in the previous rounds of halving, the coin price soared 2.8-15 times. Why is the price performance after this round of halving worse than before the halving?
First, halving may not be an essential condition that causes Bitcoin to rise. The halving of Bitcoin cannot be said to directly affect its price. Although the most direct impact of halving is to reduce the circulation of Bitcoin, the current annual output is only 160,000 (450 per year, 10 minutes for a block), and there should be several million circulating in the market, so this output is not exaggerated compared to the circulation.
Second, this round of rise before the halving was actually driven by the BTC ETF, not the halving factor.
In early 2024, the BTC ETF was approved, and since January 11, 2024, the net inflow of BTC ETF has reached 300,000 BTC, which has greatly boosted the price.
At present, the total holdings of several major ETF institutions have reached 50 billion US dollars. In September, the inflows and outflows of major institutions have decreased, but this does not mean that the ETF market is saturated. It just means that the current market trend is not good. If BTC rises, it will definitely drive the rise of ETFs.
Many people say that this round is different from previous ones. Could the four-year cycle be broken?
Many people say that this cycle is over, cryptocurrencies are going to die, a bear market is coming, and the four-year cycle is going to be broken. The basis for these people is that the price fell to this level after the halving, and did not rise to the expectations of most people.
In fact, we cannot say that it is not good just because the price did not rise to expectations, because the general environment this time is different from before. We are just trying to find a sword in the past. The general environment is that we are in a cycle of interest rate hikes, not the previous stage of large-scale money printing. The previous bull market in 21 years or 17 years were due to different economic environments and background reasons.
So is it accurate? According to the four-year cycle, it will take until 25 years to calculate. According to the current rate cut rhythm, the interest rate will drop to 2%-3% in May of 25 years. According to the situation, it should be the biggest bull market (assuming the macro economy does not collapse!)
How to operate recently
Recently, many people or our group members said that they would run away first and wait until the situation stabilizes. Many people are withdrawing one after another because many people have started to lose money, and the losses are quite severe, so they can't bear it anymore and cut their losses and leave. It can also be seen from the current trading volume that the volume has shrunk a lot compared to the beginning of the year.
So the safer approach at the moment is to wait until the end of the month, after the interest rate cut is announced, and then start operations after the market stabilizes. It is still recommended to start with mainstream currencies and then gradually with small currencies, because if the subsequent market continues to fall, then small currencies may fall further, or even return to zero, but when the market picks up, it will still be time to follow with small currencies.
Finally, I would like to say that the market will always explode in despair and end in the explosion. #加密市场急跌 #内容挖矿 #BTC☀
