It's time for a large amount of liquidation again, and we are facing a short-term turning point before the interest rate meeting.

From the desperate non-farm payrolls in July to the carnival of a soft landing, the non-farm payrolls in August may set the tone for who is real and who is fake?

1. Fundamentals

1. Last week, the three major US stock indexes all recorded gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high for the second time, and the S&P 500 index was also close to its historical high. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, has risen significantly less than the S&P and Dow Jones. Since July, investors have obviously shifted their attention from technology stocks. The performance of the seven US technology giants has lagged behind the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index by about 14%.

2. BTC fell more than 10% last week. On the one hand, it may be because American investors regard encryption as a technology investment product, and on the other hand, it is because the industry liquidity is seriously insufficient, and the purchasing power during the US trading period has declined significantly. As a high-growth technology sector, it is unlikely that there will be few investors, and what is lacking is the opportunity to buy on dips. As American investors return to the technology sector, BTC is expected to follow the rise.

3. In the context of inflationary pressure being significantly eased, unless there is a major surprise, there is no doubt that the Fed will start a rate cut cycle in September. The question is the extent of the rate cut. The August non-farm report released on Friday may help support the rise of the US market if it shows that the job market is cooling steadily, but the speed will not cause a worrying recession. The big cake may also rebound.

2. Technical analysis

1. BTC: From the high point of this round of rebound of 65,000, it has been adjusted back to the median of 57,000, but from the 1-hour to the daily level, the moving average is in a short position, and it is difficult to have a big market in the short term.

2. Judging from the pending orders of large orders, there are currently nearly 10 million US dollars of sell orders at 65,000. Without a large positive catalyst, it is difficult to break through smoothly. From historical experience, it may be necessary to wait for the arrival of the election market.

3. Market tone

1. BTC: Wide range consolidation (support: 57,800~57,000, pressure: 61,000~61,800). Before the non-agricultural data, the probability of falling below the previous low of 56,000 is small. This week, the non-agricultural data may trigger a track-and-empty market.

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