I left Zhejiang, and just after getting off the high-speed train, I got a big gift package during the Friday evening rush hour. I called an online car at 6 o'clock and drove home at 8 o'clock, a full 2 hours. My son kept asking in the car how long it would take to get home, how long it would take, I was so annoyed, the traffic in the big city is such a pain.
During the two months I lived in the county town, if my buddies asked me to go out for a drink, I would be there in 10 minutes by taxi. This is a relaxing life. In Beijing, don't make dinner appointments with people you don't have a certain relationship with. A meal only costs a few dollars, and the real cost is the two or three hours of round trip.
In recent years, many people may have heard about my thoughts in this regard, so when they invite me out, they always take special care to choose a restaurant near my home. I would like to apologize here. But if you invite me to dinner five or six ring roads away, don’t invite me if there is no ginseng fruit on the menu.
This time I stayed in Hangzhou with my wife and children for a week. She had a very good impression of Hangzhou, especially Binjiang and Xiaoshan Districts. It is a brand new city with wide and clean roads and prosperous business. The young men seen on the street are full of energy and the girls all have delicate makeup and know how to dress up. This is a reflection of the vibrant economy of a region.
I asked my wife if she wanted to move to Hangzhou, and she said it was possible. There happened to be a real estate project across from the hotel. I searched and found that the average price was 40,000-45,000, the apartment size was 180-245 square meters, and the price was 6-10 million. After two years of decline, the housing prices in Hangzhou have become more affordable.
However, I heard from netizens that Binjiang Xiaoshan is an educational depression because it is a newly developed urban area and lacks some local famous schools. But if it really comes to that, I may not let my children go to public education, find a nearby international school, and then apply for overseas education.
Many people think that if you want to study in Beijing, you must take the Beijing college entrance examination in order to take advantage of the higher admission rate. However, my former partner in my company, both he and his wife, are Tsinghua University graduates with Beijing household registration, and have already transferred their middle school child to an international school. He has previously analyzed for me the cost-effectiveness of the Beijing college entrance examination and international education. As a result, I have become more relaxed about it and no longer insist on educating my children in China.
……
The stock market is pretty good today, with the biggest recovery this month. Coincidentally, every time I check the market on the train, A-shares seem to be doing well. Why don't I find a decoration team to transform my study into the style of a high-speed rail carriage?
Two days of continuous rise have made many people's minds active again. Someone left a message in the afternoon asking me if this wave can return to 3100. To be honest, 3100 is not an unrealistic target, but it is too early to talk about it now. The last day of last month was also a long-term rise, and the increase was greater than yesterday + today, but looking back at the whole August, everyone fell into autism.
Now it is the month-end rebound that gives people hope. If there is any difference, it is that the Fed is getting closer to cutting interest rates. I just went to the prediction website and found that in the betting pool of nearly 5 million US dollars, the probability of not cutting interest rates on September 18 is less than 4%. This means that if you bet on no interest rate cut, you will get a 25-fold return if there is really no cut. Do you dare?
All I can say is that after being delayed again and again, the Fed’s rate cut is finally here. The RMB exchange rate has risen by nearly 3% recently, which will greatly improve the attitude of international funds towards Chinese assets. Although I can’t see the dynamics of northbound funds now, I intuitively think that foreign capital has bought at least 10 billion net today, so the blue-chip stocks representing core assets have risen fiercely.
Today, there is news from another foreign media channel that China's existing mortgage loans (US$5.4 trillion) will be considered to be reduced in order to reduce the debt burden of residents and stimulate consumption recovery. So you can see that the China Real Estate Index, which has been falling all the way, has been boosted this morning, soaring to 7.22% at one point, and real estate stocks have seen a large area of daily limit.
Sources said that residents with mortgage loans will be allowed to transfer mortgage banks and renegotiate a loan interest rate before January next year. If this is implemented, it will be a great good policy. I calculated that a 0.5% reduction would be equivalent to reducing mortgage loans by 200 billion yuan, and a 1% reduction would be 400 billion yuan.
The current weighted average interest rate of existing mortgage loans is 4.27%, which is definitely too high. There is a nearly 1.3-1.5% gap between the interest rate of first-time mortgage loans and the 2.8-3%. So there is room for a downward adjustment. It just depends on whether Party A is willing.
That's all, have a nice weekend everyone.