Last night's BTC trend was eye-catching, completing a 1-hour bottom back, which means that the previous shock range has stopped falling and is currently in a consolidation state. Bitcoin's rebound from 49,000 to 65,000 has been confirmed to be over, and now it is a callback for this rebound. The callback pulls out a Fibonacci retracement, 58,888 is strong, 57,000 is neutral, and 55,115 is weak. Only when it falls below 55,115 can the overall rising stage be considered over. According to this trend, we can see that the lower the price, the more appropriate the stop loss is, and the higher the price, the more inappropriate the stop loss is. Profits and losses come from the same source, and you can't have both high returns and low risks.
At present, the market liquidity is low, and a small amount of chips can cause a lot of volatility. The results of the long-short game and the news that can influence the market trend will be the key to stimulating the market.
Recent market analysis reports:
On August 24, Powell cut interest rates by 60,000-65,000 points, which was a positive development. The pull-up effect was obvious, and short positions were almost wiped out;
Last weekend, the market high hovered between 64,000 and 65,000 points, with no clear breakthrough;
However, the market unexpectedly plunged in the early hours of Monday, hitting a low of 58,000 points, completely erasing the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut. The market is now difficult to return to 65,000 points, and it seems that the Fed's rate cut has been fully digested. In the next few days, the market is expected to fluctuate between 58,000 and 61,000 points. It seems that the market will re-select a new direction at 60,000 points in September. In general, the current market sentiment is relatively depressed, and we need to be alert to market fluctuations and remain cautious.
In the past six months, the cryptocurrency market has been fluctuating in the range of 50,000-70,000, which has made investors feel a little disappointed and anxious. However, according to analysts, this situation may be broken in September, and a one-sided super-large market may appear, which will revitalize the market. If the market breaks upward, the increase may reach 60,000+20,000=80,000, and if it falls downward, it may fall by 60,000-20,000=40,000. Therefore, for the market in September and October, investors need to make wise choices, because if they make the right choice, they may gain huge wealth, but if they make the wrong choice, they may face the risk of liquidation.
It is obvious from the monthly return rate of Bitcoin that in 11 of the past 13-24 years, Bitcoin had very bad Septembers, with 8 declines and 3 increases. Moreover, September likes to have a crash anniversary. September is likely to continue the downward trend in August, then bottom out, bottom out in mid-to-late September and then rebound at the end of September, coming out of the haze in October and rising sharply in October!
According to historical data statistics, the stock market trend in October has shown a clear trend in the past ten years. Among them, the stock market showed an upward trend in 9 Octobers, and only twice it fell. Moreover, there were 6 Octobers with a sharp surge, and the increase even reached 25-35%. What is even more impressive is that October in the ten years from 2014 to 2024 basically showed an upward trend. Therefore, according to historical data analysis, there is a greater probability of a decline in the stock market in September, while there is a greater probability of an increase in October.
At present, the probability is that the market will fluctuate around 59,000 and 60,000 by the end of August, and then there will be another wave of market in September. Then we will focus on the US economic data.
September 6th 20:30 U.S. unemployment rate data (important)
September 11th US CPI Price Index data (important)
September interest rate cut + unemployment rate fell (good) + CPI fell (good) = big rise
September rate cut + unemployment rate increased (bad) + CPI increased (bad) = big drop
In September, I will continue to update my views based on the US economic data. The current market direction is formed by the combined forces of many uncertainties. We may be able to improve our chances of winning by following the following points:
① When you want to buy something you don’t understand, it is better to buy a large currency than a small currency;
② Bitcoin is the weathervane of the entire crypto market. Under the current market conditions, if Bitcoin is weak, other major currencies will not be strong (smaller currencies may occasionally emerge);
③ The batch strategy is conducive to lowering the average price, and the warehouse strategy is helpful to stabilize the mentality; if you are FOMO, buy until you are no longer FOMO; if you are afraid, sell until you are no longer afraid, and maintain your best state.
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