Looking at the historical K-line, there are two sections that are very similar to the current trend. The result should be the same. $BTC

First, why is it difficult to operate in the current market conditions?

The hourly K-line since the decline on August 5 is simply a microcosm of the K-line since March, repeatedly stepping on the trend line/moving average, repeatedly making false breakthroughs and scams, which dampen the passion of traders.

Second, what is the current trend?

In the past two years, the big pancake dealers like two methods of washing stocks. One is "helping the old lady go down the stairs", going down one grid at a time, and then washing sideways after the next grid, and then going down again; the other is drawing doors, drawing big doors and small doors, and then giving you a U-shaped trend after drawing the doors.

At the same time, trend lines and triangular oscillations are created for you. The purpose of creating them is to create a false breakthrough later, to trick you into getting on board/cutting your losses and then exploding you.

Looking closely at the hourly chart, we can see all kinds of false breakouts and gates since the 5th day. Yesterday’s trend was just a microcosm.

Third, which stages in history are very similar to the current trend.

Two sections, one from August to October last year, and one from the end of 2022. Use 4h level to watch each. Repeatedly draw the door.

Fourth, what to do next?

My understanding is that the current trend is the same as the previous two historical periods, and is making final preparations for the next big market. The whole process may take another month to fluctuate and adjust.

At the end of the shock, the amplitude will become narrower and narrower, and the volatility will decrease. During this period, a second test may be completed, and the price may drop to around 5w4 for testing. Eventually, the real market will be launched.

Fifth, about the price.

Looking at the next year, the current bitcoin price is still at the bottom, not far from the shutdown price of most mining machines. If it needs to drop later, I don’t think it will drop too deep, 53,000~54,000.

Sixth, expectations of "interest rate cuts" are too strong, which is a risk.

The market's current expectations for "interest rate cuts" are, first, a 100% cut in September, and second, multiple cuts this year. Lao Yu once again reminds his old fans that he believes the probability of a rate cut is still only 50%.

Regarding the interest rate cut, it has been mentioned repeatedly before. No matter how you view the issue of interest rate cut, I think everyone needs to be prepared. If there is no interest rate cut in September, the market will have a flash crash on the day of the interest rate meeting and go for a second test. Before that, it is best to reduce your leverage.

The above can be summarized as follows: survive this/the last period of the wash-out, reduce leverage, and be ready for the second test at any time. The big market will come in late September to October at the latest.