Bitcoin has not risen yet, is the bull market over? You must know these key data!
And what coins are worth buying now? Let's follow Shuqin to take a look~
First of all, let’s take a look at the front-page headlines in the cryptocurrency world this week.
According to the latest data released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, 701 new funds reported their Bitcoin ETF holdings in the last quarter. Note that these are not 701 individuals, but 701 institutions. Adding the 1,200 funds that entered the market in the first quarter, 1,950 institutions have entered the Bitcoin ETF two quarters after its launch, which is all additional incremental funds.
In the last bull market, Bitcoin rose to 69,000, but these institutions did not enter the market because ETFs had not yet been launched and funds could not buy Bitcoin. Therefore, the upper limit of Bitcoin in this bull market will definitely be much higher than the last one.
However, the peak of the cryptocurrency bull market usually occurs one year after the output is halved, so next year will be the peak of the cryptocurrency market.
However, this year, Bitcoin has always seen a huge surge in October, with an average increase of nearly 30%.
So I think it is expected to reach 100,000 US dollars by the end of this year, and then slowly rise to around 200,000 next year as the Fed releases money. So it will take half a year to a year to rise instead of just a few days, so investors still have to have the right return expectations.
Now, in addition to the 2.5 billion bitcoins sold in Mentougou, the United States is also not quiet. This week, 600 million bitcoins were secretly transferred to Coinbase for sale. Some people say that it is put into custody, but do you really believe it?
His previous coins were kept in his wallet for 10 years and were fine, so why did he transfer them to Coinbase now? And he transferred them many times, each time for billions. Add to that the sell-offs in Germany and Mentougou, and the current cycle of the cryptocurrency circle is really too difficult.
Therefore, Shuqin really is the reason why Trump can come to power, because he has said before that during his term of office, the Americans will not sell Bitcoin, but will use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. This will definitely be a qualitative change and the second big engine in this cycle besides ETFs.
Therefore, everyone can pay attention to People, especially there will be a debate between the two factions in October. The last debate caused People to surge by 30%, so we need to start planning in September this time.
Okay, let’s analyze some currently popular coins. The first one is the star dog coin Dogs on the Ton chain which is about to be launched. Many people have asked me whether they should enter the market.
His competitor is Ton's other ecological currency Not, which has a market value of 1.1 billion. However, Not is listed on Binance, while Dogs is not.
Therefore, the upper limit of its market value will not exceed 1.2 billion Not. Based on the issuance of 550 billion tokens, the price of a single coin will not exceed 0.002u. So don’t buy it if it exceeds this price. If you have already bought it, sell it quickly.
When it goes online next Tuesday, 550 billion coins will flow into major platforms, and the selling pressure will be unimaginable.
And I don’t know if you have discovered any business opportunities, whether it is Not, Dogs or the upcoming Catizen, these are all small games on the Telegram Ton chain, so this Ton is clearly catching up with Sol and becoming a new local dog base.
You may not see anything in the current bear market, but I think the ecosystem of the Ton chain will definitely explode in the bull market. So in addition to allocating some Sol that has already exploded, you can also ambush some Ton. I think around 6.2 and 6.4 are good times to enter the market.
Previously, we entered the market at 6u and then escaped the top perfectly at 7.1. I told everyone to pull back and buy back, and well, it really came back.
Because you have to know that the Federal Reserve has not yet loosened its monetary policy, it is difficult for the cryptocurrency market to increase effectively, so we should mainly focus on swing trading, buying low and selling high.
Although the price of Ton or Pepe has not changed much, their weekly fluctuations are more than 10%. This is actually our profit opportunity. Shuqin updates it in real time every day. Those who are interested can come and have a look.
Okay, let's continue. The current cryptocurrency market is not without negative factors. There are two pieces of data that really make people feel that they love or hate it.
Although the number of unemployed people has unexpectedly dropped recently, people’s fear of the Great Depression is also dissipating, and Bitcoin also had a small pull last night, but in the long run it is bearish, as shown in the picture.
The figure shows Wall Street's forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. The original expectation of two interest rate cuts has begun to fade, and people have generally begun to price in the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once in September. The reason for this is the recent positive unemployment data.
Therefore, current pricing expectations really need to change.
In the short term, U.S. employment data remains healthy and the probability of a recession is low, so the cryptocurrency market should not experience the kind of collapse and plunge during the financial crisis, followed by a V-shaped reversal and take-off.
However, in the long run, the Fed will weaken both the timing of interest rate cuts and the intensity of money printing, so this bull market in the cryptocurrency world should be a slow and long one, and will rise as the Fed gradually loosens up the economy.
In fact, Benqin prefers the latter, because although the former has risen sharply due to the release of money, I don’t want to experience the 60% plunge in a few days caused by the epidemic again. It is really terrible.
So now we just have to wait patiently for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to release liquidity, so that there will be more money in the market. This is also an important foundation for the formation of a bull market in the cryptocurrency world!
Finally, don't forget to click on my avatar to vote for me. Thank you, everyone~
^_^ #今日市场观点
