The BTC rate reached $56,078 during the night correction. And this invalidated the idea with a five-wave structure, in which the high of the first wave was $56,276. In general, despite the fact that after testing the volume level of $56,361 there was a vigorous rebound, sellers are still holding the initiative. And this looks alarming, makes us think that the decline is not over.
If you switch to younger TFs, for example, thirty-minute, then you can make a different wave pattern. With the first wave high at $55,600. Already the third variation 🙄, but the last of the possible ones.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202408/7f8003e9e22fa3df749a976b7bfe684d.png)
In this scenario, the five-wave structure for#BTCis still relevant. But the need to look for arguments to maintain the movement for days and weeks ahead on lower minute TFs is confusing.
A subscriber in our chat reasonably assumed that the entire growth from August 5 to 9 was only wave 1. And now only wave 2 is developing. This is our expectation, but nothing prevents us from laying out more local movements within more global ones. We just don’t look so far into the uncertainty of the local picture. The chances of correct interpretation by waves are higher when the price is already in wave 3 or 4, and not just falling in wave 2.
For the "correction in the second wave" idea to remain relevant, the situation is simpler in terms of conditions - now we just need to not rewrite the low of August 5. And it is really too early to talk about the scenario of updating the low of August 5. The most important support now is the volume level of $ 55,059. Closing below it with the body of the daily candle is a bad sign for bulls. But while the price is higher - you can not expect an update of the low, despite how strong the sellers look now.
The decline, as we wrote yesterday, judging by the daily structure of the candles, may continue for several more days. Let's adjust the range: until August 18-20.
The most important resistance for growth now is the volume level of $59,335, and the EMA 200 of the daily TF is practically on it.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202408/d0825ffaa5fa49d91512935daf4bb1af.png)
While the price is lower, the squeeze may test the EMA 50 of the weekly TF, which is now at $53,565. By the way, this weekly EMA has significantly improved its position for the bulls during the spring-summer 2024 range, having pulled up from $37,600.