Super plunge + super rebound! How to operate safely now

After experiencing the extreme market conditions caused by the black swan event, BTC and the entire market have experienced an oversold rebound. However, this rebound will not last long. From the K-line, the price has rebounded to the halfway point of the long Yinxian; from the moving average, the rebound has touched the daily 5-day moving average. I expect the rebound to end within the next two days and may fall again.

If BTC can return to below $51,000 again, it will be a good time to cover the spot. The current market is volatile, and the spot can also be operated in the short term. After the first oversold rebound and then fall back, a new range of shocks may be formed.

Confusing market conditions

Regarding the emergency rate cut: The Fed’s “megaphone” said that the threshold for an emergency rate cut is very high and the Fed will discuss whether to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Regarding the situation in the Middle East: The White House said early this morning that it did not believe that Iran or Hezbollah had begun retaliatory actions against Israel.

Regarding the US recession: The GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 2.9%, which was previously expected to be 2.5%. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said that the recent stock market adjustment may be healthy, the Federal Reserve will abandon the emergency rate cut, and the US is not expected to experience a recession.

On the Japanese economy: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank will not raise its policy interest rate if financial markets are unstable.

The above are the hot events that the market has been paying attention to recently. Today, I will make a simple summary. At present, the crisis or negative news has basically been eliminated. From the market perspective, it will take time to repair.

After the repair is completed, the market will automatically return to the trend before the bad news. In other words, any sudden good or bad events will not affect or change the long-term trend of the market, which is crucial.

Market sentiment and investment expectations

In a long-term volatile market, investors are advised to focus on long-term investment goals and not to add too much leverage in the short term to avoid unnecessary losses in short-term market fluctuations. Leveraged investment has timing risks, so it should be used with caution.

The market has experienced many negative events and adjustments, such as the Mtgox incident, the German government's sale of Bitcoin, local war conflicts, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes. However, after many negative events, the market still resisted the risks, and the bottom signal was temporarily confirmed.

Currently, the market is undergoing repair and adjustment, and the short-term panic selling needs time to digest. Once the repair is completed, the market will sprint upward again. There is no doubt that the long-term trend of the crypto market has emerged. What we can do is stay away from leverage, seize the opportunity to buy low-priced chips crazily, and wait patiently for the market to recover.

Short-term investors often have inertial thinking, thinking that the price will fall when it rises to 70,000, and will rise when it falls to 50,000. However, after five months of volatility, the exchange of chips by institutional funds has been completed. There are also uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts and interest rate cuts in the future, which may trigger a series of emergencies and force you to discard your precious BTC chips.

Super plunge + super rebound! How to operate safely now

After experiencing the extreme market conditions caused by the black swan event, BTC and the entire market have experienced an oversold rebound. However, this rebound will not last long. From the K-line, the price has rebounded to the halfway point of the long Yinxian; from the moving average, the rebound has touched the daily 5-day moving average. I expect the rebound to end within the next two days and may fall again.

If BTC can return to below $51,000 again, it will be a good time to cover the spot. The current market is volatile, and the spot can also be operated in the short term. After the first oversold rebound and then fall back, a new range of shocks may be formed.

Confusing market conditions

Regarding the emergency rate cut: The Fed’s “megaphone” said that the threshold for an emergency rate cut is very high and the Fed will discuss whether to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Regarding the situation in the Middle East: The White House said early this morning that it did not believe that Iran or Hezbollah had begun retaliatory actions against Israel.

Regarding the US recession: The GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 2.9%, which was previously expected to be 2.5%. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said that the recent stock market adjustment may be healthy, the Federal Reserve will abandon the emergency rate cut, and the US is not expected to experience a recession.

On the Japanese economy: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank will not raise its policy interest rate if financial markets are unstable.

The above are the hot events that the market has been paying attention to recently. Today, I will make a simple summary. At present, the crisis or negative news has basically been eliminated. From the market perspective, it will take time to repair.

After the repair is completed, the market will automatically return to the trend before the bad news. In other words, any sudden good or bad events will not affect or change the long-term trend of the market, which is crucial.

Market sentiment and investment expectations

In a long-term volatile market, investors are advised to focus on long-term investment goals and not to add too much leverage in the short term to avoid unnecessary losses in short-term market fluctuations. Leveraged investment has timing risks, so it should be used with caution.

The market has experienced many negative events and adjustments, such as the Mtgox incident, the German government's sale of Bitcoin, local war conflicts, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes. However, after many negative events, the market still resisted the risks, and the bottom signal was temporarily confirmed.

Currently, the market is undergoing repair and adjustment, and the short-term panic selling needs time to digest. Once the repair is completed, the market will sprint upward again. There is no doubt that the long-term trend of the crypto market has emerged. What we can do is stay away from leverage, seize the opportunity to buy low-priced chips crazily, and wait patiently for the market to recover.

Short-term investors often have inertial thinking, thinking that the price will fall when it rises to 70,000, and will rise when it falls to 50,000. However, after five months of volatility, the exchange of chips by institutional funds has been completed. There are also uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts and interest rate cuts in the future, which may trigger a series of emergencies and force you to discard your precious BTC chips.