The BTC rate immediately dropped below $63,000. Loy of the day - $62,666. The price came to a test of the support pool, which we wrote about in our morning review:
- Global upward trend from October 15, 2023 - by candle bodies (now at $63,197).
- Volume level $62,987.
- Fibonacci level 0.5 from the high on June 7 to the low on July 5 (rate $62,807).
This is a marker touch, so we do an UPD. We adjusted the excitement to the current situation. But the structure and expectations are still the same.
As they wrote, when this pool breaks out, the next trend support - the global upward one from October 15, 2023 according to the shadows of the candles - is now at $60,902. Now close to the volume level of $61,231. And this, we believe, is the maximum goal for the bears to decline in wave A.
Now for wave A it makes sense to focus on this goal, BUT until the end of the day. On the four-hour time frame, the current downward structure of candles is with the potential to decrease by a maximum of 2-3 more candles. That is, again, we are waiting for a wave to break by the end of the day. After this, we expect the start of a rebound in wave B.
By wave B:
- The target is the maximum (!) in the area of the volume level of $67,088 and the downward trend since March 14.
- The minimum target is around the 0.618 Fiboncchi level (rate $64,982).
In wave C, we are still focusing on the EMA target of the 200 day TF (currently $59,532). Moreover, today the EMA of the 50 day TF has been broken. But remember the gap of $57,880-$60,840 on the BTC futures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Moreover, approximately the lower part of this range may be the target of a probable HyP pattern (in the process of formation, wave B will be its right shoulder).
TOTAL: we leave the target correction level of $60,000-62,000 in effect. But remember the gap. While the trend is downward, closing it is a priority.
